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317
FXUS61 KPHI 011741
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
141 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in later today through Tuesday before
moving offshore Wednesday. A more active period resumes Thursday
with the arrival of a surface trough but a cold front may not
push through the region until towards the end of this coming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will continue to build closer to the region,
resulting in decreasing winds and continued tranquil conditions.
As it builds closer, widespread subsidence will develop,
dissipating any lingering stratocumulus by early this evening.
Lows tonight are expected to be around 5 degrees below normal,
while tomorrow highs should recover to be near normal. The one
possible exception to this is close to the coast as it appears
to be a prime set up for a sea breeze, which could keep
temperatures at the coast slightly lower.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure remains the name of the game during the short term
forecast period. This will continue a dry and overall pleasant start
to the new month across the region. Lows Tuesday night will be
a touch warmer compared to Monday night as well, mainly in the
low-mid 60s.

The high will continue to progress eastward Tuesday night into
Wednesday and slide offshore. This will shift winds to be more
southerly, strengthen slightly, and begin to slowly draw more warm
and moist air back into the region. Wednesday looks to remain
pleasant overall though with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s and
dew points in the upper 50s to near 60. Wednesday night lows are
forecast to fall into the mid 60s with upper 60s to near 70 in the
heart of the I-95 corridor.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The forecast for the long term period is largely unchanged, an
increase in activity is still expected with decreasing influence
from high pressure as an upper-level trough across Canada suppresses
the upper-level ridge southward. Models continue to indicate the
formation of a secondary trough over the Midwest and potential slow
progression eastward.

With a series of shortwave impulses pushing through the region ahead
of the upper-level trough, chances for showers and thunderstorms
exist for each day of the long term period. Owing to a lack of
uncertainty in upper-level support, chances generally peak around 30-
40 percent right now and are focused on the afternoon and evening
hours of each day. What is looking more likely with this forecast
update, is the lack of relief from increasingly humid conditions
through the end of the week if the upper-level trough remains back
to the west. While high temperatures are forecast to remain steady
in the upper 80s to low 90s, dew points look to continue to increase
through the end of this week, potentially rising into the mid 70s.
Some relief may arrive by next Sunday but that will be highly
dependent on the amplitude of the upper-level trough and the
strength of the associated surface cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight...VFR with clouds at 5000 ft AGL dissipating by
00Z. North Northwesterly winds 10 g 20 kt will diminish by 00Z.
After 00Z, expect winds to prevail out of the north around 5-10
knots. Winds may be light enough that the direction will become
variable at some TAF sites (especially KABE, KMIV, and KRDG).
High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR conditions expected. Winds gradually shifting from
NNE to ESE at 10 kt or less. However, a sea breeze may develop
and affect KACY and KMIV which could result in a quick shift to
SE winds with wind speeds of 10 to 15 KT. If a sea breeze
develops, it would be most likely to affect the terminals
between 18 and 00Z. High confidence on the overall pattern,
moderate confidence on sea breeze development.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.

Thursday and Friday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (30-
40%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon and evening.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory Criteria
through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Friday...Conditions are forecast to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

Rip Currents...

Today...Northerly winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will
gradually diminish some later this afternoon. Due to these elevated
winds and breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet, there is a MODERATE risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore
and the Delaware Beaches.

Tuesday...Northeast to east winds near 10 mph with lower breaking
waves will result in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...AKL
LONG TERM...AKL
AVIATION...AKL/Johnson
MARINE...AKL/Johnson