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020
FXUS62 KRAH 120708
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will pass over the Mid Atlantic and
Carolinas through the weekend, as a warm and humid airmass holds in
place.

&&


.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 AM Friday...

- Afternoon scattered showers and storms expected.
- Marginal Risk for severe storms and flash flooding.
- Heat indices climbing up into the low 100s for portions of the
Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain.

Quiet conditions expected through much of the morning and daytime
hours. A few areas of low stratus and patchy fog are possible just
before dawn, but then lifting shortly after the sunrises. A weak
Piedmont trough across the region will help initiate some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.  MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 K/kg and
PWs of 1.5 to 2 will also aid in some stronger storms but with
weak flow, storms are expected to be more pulse like and short
lived. SPC has areas east of US-1 in the favorable location with a
Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms. Timing will range from mid
afternoon through evening hours. Some showers could linger through
around midnight.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s today. With dew points in
the low to mid 70s, expect heat indices to get into the lower 100s,
especially around the Triangle, Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

* Similar airmass in place across the region on Saturday, with
  scattered showers and storms expected

* Temperatures reaching the mid 90s Saturday afternoon

Not much change in the atmosphere for Saturday, with a nearly
identical distribution of PW`s across the region (1.5" NW, close to
2" SE). Weak Piedmont troughing at the surface in response to weak
northwesterly flow aloft should be a trigger for afternoon shower
and thunderstorm development across the area tomorrow, although
there will still be an abundance of dry air in the mid levels to
overcome. With plenty of MLCAPE on offer around 2000-2500 J/KG and
sufficient moisture in place, one would expect at least some
thunderstorm development although they should be short lived given
weak steering flow. 12Z HREF confirms the idea of more areal
coverage of showers and storms compared to today, but still a far
cry from earlier this week. PoPs will range from 20-40 percent
tomorrow, peaking from 20Z-00Z, then tailing off after sunset.

Temps on Saturday should be on par with today`s, with highs in the
low to mid 90s. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Given the
continued period of dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, look for
afternoon heat indices to eclipse 100 degrees in many locations
although they should fall short of heat advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Friday...

* Daily diurnal showers and storms return, with highest confidence
  in the Mon to Wed time frame

* Heat and humidity much of the week, with heat indices highest Sun
  and Mon in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

After a brief reprieve in our storm chances, it would appear that an
uptick in scattered showers and storms are in the offing for the
long term. A cold front and attendant trough over the Great Lakes to
OH valley region Sun will gradually slide south and east into the
middle of next week. The front will not make it through, dying out
somewhere near central/southern VA. But the proximity of the
trough/front being close to central NC, along with precipitable
water values increasing once again to 2 to 2.25 inches, will favor
increasing shower and storm chances each afternoon and evening Mon
into Wed. After Wed, the Bermuda high will extend its influence,
with persistent warm and moist southerly flow. With the absence of
any large-scale forcing these days, storm chances may lessen but
will still be above climo with the moist and unstable airmass in
place. A late-week cold front sometime Fri-Sat will also try to
approach, which should keep rain chances on the higher end. Any
storms over saturated soils will risk the potential for flash
flooding, especially over the Piedmont.

As for temperatures, it appears warmest Sun and Mon in the low to
mid 90s. Heat indices during this time will range from the upper 90s
to lower 100s. A few locales in the Triangle and Sandhills region
could briefly reach heat advisory criteria of 105, but will let
later forecast shifts evaluate further. Rain chances being high
around the middle of the week will keep temps warm and muggy but
lower in the 80s to near 90, before warming back up Fri in the lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

VFR conditions are expected for much of the overnight hours.
However, with light winds in the predawn hours patchy low stratus
and fog could develop across the region. A few hours of sub-VFR
conditions are possible at all TAF sites but confidence is on the
lower side. If any fog/low stratus does develop expect it to lift
shortly after 12z. VFR conditions will once again dominate much of
the day today with increased chance of showers/storms in the
afternoon through early evening. Storms are expected to be isolated
to scattered and expected to end between 00z-02z. After which light
winds and VFR conditions will return for the overnight hours.

Looking beyond 06z Sun, the overall pattern will remain largely
unchanged into the middle of next week, with a risk for early-
morning sub-VFR fog/stratus, and a chance for showers and storms
each afternoon into the evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CA/Hartfield