-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
379
FXUS64 KSHV 281120
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
620 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Upper-level ridging will remain firmly in place over the Southern
Plains through at least the middle of the next work week. Today,
the forecast area will remain between a stationary front to the
south and another back door cold front across the Ozarks and Lower
Ohio River Valley. East-southeast flow in the low-levels will
advect more Gulf moisture into the region bringing increased
humidity and high heat index values. This should be enough to push
peak heat indices above 105 degrees F across most of the area,
with the possible exception of our northernmost counties in
Southwest Arkansas. Therefore, the ongoing Heat Advisory was
maintained with no changes.

The more easterly component and "long way" advection of the
moisture should also keep most of the daily sea breeze convection
south of our area. However, the southern frontal boundary is
expected to become diffuse during the day allowing the low-level
flow to become more southerly and onshore. I can`t rule out the
possibility of a couple of isolated showers or storms affecting
Grant or La Salle Parishes late this afternoon, but current
thinking is that rain chances are too low to warrant mentionable
PoPs.

Very similar conditions are expected for Saturday. However,
increased southerly flow should allow for better chances for
diurnal convection during the afternoon south of a line from
Lufkin TX to Columbia LA. Temperatures will continue to gradually
warm today and Saturday. Additional heat headlines are likely
areawide on Saturday as the heat and humidity continue to build.
Excessive Heat Warnings can`t be ruled out this weekend.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Increasingly hot and humid conditions will be the major concern
for much of the long-term period, especially through the middle of
next week as the upper level ridge strengthens over the Southern
Plains. The hottest temperatures of the next week are generally
expected on Tuesday as the upper ridge moves directly over the
forecast area. The latest NBM suggests probabilities of 30 to 60
percent of high temperatures of at least 100 degrees F in portions
of East Texas (mainly Wood, Upshur, Gregg, Rusk, and Wood Counties)
and Louisiana (mainly Caddo, Bossier, Red River, Natchitoches,
and Sabine Parishes) for Tuesday afternoon.

A weak disturbance trapped underneath the ridge is progged to
help push a backdoor cold front south across the area Sunday and
into Monday. This should bring increased chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to most locations Sunday afternoon. The
higher rain chances will be confined to our southernmost zones on
Monday as the front moves south of the region of the disturbance
moves west into Texas. This is expected to be our best chances for
rain in the next 7 days.

Despite the strong ridge, daily chances for diurnal sea breeze
convection will persist each day, mainly south of a line from
Lufkin TX to Columbia LA. Medium range models suggest the ridge
should weaken somewhat during the latter half of the week, which
may allow temperatures to cool a couple of degrees. However,
daytime highs are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s in
most locations.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the 28/12z TAF update...Satellite imagery is showing mostly
clear skies across the region. That being said, there is an
increase in clouds moving in from the northwest. KTYR and KLFK
have some lower ceilings overhead that have brought some MVFR
flight conditions this morning. Otherwise, CIGs remain above 5k
feet. Winds remain light and should continue this way through the
rest of this TAF period. /33/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  80  98  79 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  96  78  96  77 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  94  75  96  75 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  96  79  99  79 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  96  76  96  76 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  97  79  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  78  96  77 /   0   0  10   0
LFK  95  78  95  75 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ059-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...33