Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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771 FXUS65 KABQ 291803 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1203 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Quick update to expand the Flood Watch across the remainder of northeast NM for this afternoon and tonight. Latest CAMs show potential for greater than 3" of rainfall in some areas, especially Union and Harding counties late tonight. New FFA already out. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Widespread showers and storms are expected today and tonight, creating an elevated risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars and in the central and northeast highlands. The active weather will continue into early next week with scattered to widespread showers and storms favoring the western and northern high terrain each afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances trend down mid and especially late week, but burn scar flash flooding will continue to remain a possibility. Temperatures the next several days will likely be near seasonal averages in the central and eastern portions of the state and 5 to 10 degrees below average in the west. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Moist backdoor cold front in southeast CO is just now approaching Trinidad early this morning on its way south into eastern NM today. At the same time an elongated Bermuda high extending as far west as eastern NM is tapping subtropical moisture over Sonora and Chihuahua Mexico. These two features are forecast to combine with one another to result in another active to very active afternoon and evening featuring scattered to numerous thunderstorms with the potential for torrential rainfall to portions of central and northeast NM today. Latest global models along with the HREF suggestive of a several heavy rain bullseyes (ranging from 1.5"-3.25") near and just east of the central mountain chain. The main precipitation bullseye that the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) members have latched on to are in eastern Mora county along and east of I-25, southeast Colfax county east of Maxwell, and for portions of western San Miguel county over and near Las Vegas. Additionally, heavy rainfall potential is possible in the East Mountain area of ABQ including Edgewood along with much of western and central Torrance county where heavy rain is also possible late this afternoon through mid evening. These areas have been added to the Flood Watch for Flash Flooding this afternoon and evening. Models indicating that with PWAT values near 1.6" in northeast NM and cells training over the same location, that heavy rain is the primary threat today. Effective bulk shear will be plenty sufficient for several hours of strong to severe thunderstorm potential in northeast NM during the late afternoon before convection there turns to all an excessive rain threat toward sunset through early morning Sunday. Dry air aloft over West Texas moves into much of NM Sunday, shifting scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity to the south central mountains including Ruidoso and far western areas west of the Divide. Storm motion is forecast to be to the north around 15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Drier air will continue to infiltrate from the south Sunday night, stabilizing the atmosphere and keeping precipitation coverage across the eastern two-thirds of the state to a minimum. However, showers and storms near the AZ border will likely continue through the night as a subtle feature moves northward across the area. High pressure over the southern Plains is expected to slide eastward on Monday, tilting the moisture axis back across New Mexico. However, the moisture gradient will be relatively tight with PWATs ranging from around 120% of normal over central NM to as high as 250% of normal across the far northwest. In addition, the base of a trough will swing through the Intermountain West Monday, providing the lift and shear needed for a few stronger storms in the Four Corners region where the heaviest rainfall will focus. The trough is expected to scour out some of the moisture, but leave enough behind for scattered to widespread showers and storms both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon/evening. A pattern change is expected on Thursday as the Bermuda High retreats back over the southeastern US and an amplified ridge develops over the eastern Pacific off the US west coast. This along with a mean 500mb trough over the northern Rockies will dry out The Great Basin region and some of that dry air is expected to make its way into northern NM. This will keep most convective activity to the south on Thursday and Friday, but storms are still possible in the Sacramento mountains if the dry air doesn`t intrude quite far enough south. After Thursday, confidence in the forecast is low. Cluster analysis shows a couple different potential synoptic patterns. The first solution hints at a monsoon ridge building over the Intermountain West, allowing some sub-tropical moisture to sneak back up into the state, whereas the second shows the amplified ridge sticking around off the west coast of the US. The second pattern would likely be drier for the western half of the state, but wetter for the eastern half since it would increase the likelihood of a backdoor cold front intrusion from the east (as suggested by both the deterministic GFS and EC). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A backdoor cold front has pushed through northeast NM this morning and is currently positioned just south of a KCQC to KTCC line. Moist upslope flow behind this front will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop along and east of the Central Mt Chain this afternoon. Severe storms are possible, with large hail possible initially, but impacts will transition to damaging winds and heavy rainfall which may result vsby. Areas along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mts to the OK and TX borders have the best chances at severe weather this afternoon and evening with heavy rainfall potentially lasting through 12Z. Outflow may push an east wind through the gaps of the Central Mt Chain at KSAF and KABQ tonight, but latest model guidance suggest that outflow from storms elsewhere may interfere with a strong gap wind. Thus, it may be more moderate in nature or winds may be from the N or NW. Additional storms will develop this afternoon across both western and north central NM as well with brief cig and/or vsby reductions possible. Storms across western NM will diminish around sunset. Low cigs are likely across NE NM overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 A climate pattern that mimics the monsoon will continue to bring a heavy rain threat to much of central and eastern NM today. This active pattern is forecast to shift to northwest NM Sunday. Moisture moves back along a swath from the upper Gila northeastward to the northern Sangre de Cristo mountains on Monday afternoon. The swath of thunderstorm activity is forecast to sag southward slightly Tuesday for another round of scattered to numerous thunderstorms with locally very heavy rain. A trend toward drier weather is anticipated Thursday and Friday. The active pattern, however, is forecast to return again next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 92 67 91 66 / 20 20 70 40 Dulce........................... 89 52 86 54 / 20 40 80 50 Cuba............................ 88 60 86 60 / 40 50 60 50 Gallup.......................... 89 58 90 59 / 30 30 60 40 El Morro........................ 84 60 86 59 / 70 40 60 50 Grants.......................... 89 58 88 59 / 50 50 60 50 Quemado......................... 86 60 88 60 / 60 30 60 50 Magdalena....................... 91 65 88 65 / 40 40 30 30 Datil........................... 86 60 86 61 / 70 30 40 40 Reserve......................... 91 57 92 59 / 60 30 40 60 Glenwood........................ 98 67 96 68 / 60 30 40 50 Chama........................... 83 51 79 52 / 30 50 80 60 Los Alamos...................... 87 63 83 64 / 40 60 70 40 Pecos........................... 86 60 82 61 / 50 60 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 83 49 80 52 / 60 70 80 40 Red River....................... 74 50 74 51 / 80 70 80 30 Angel Fire...................... 76 48 75 50 / 70 70 60 20 Taos............................ 87 57 84 57 / 40 70 60 30 Mora............................ 81 54 80 55 / 70 60 60 20 Espanola........................ 95 63 91 65 / 30 60 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 88 63 84 64 / 30 60 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 63 88 64 / 30 60 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 69 92 70 / 30 50 40 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 72 94 70 / 20 40 30 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 69 96 70 / 20 40 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 97 70 95 71 / 20 50 30 30 Belen........................... 99 67 96 69 / 20 40 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 97 69 95 70 / 20 50 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 98 65 96 68 / 20 40 20 30 Corrales........................ 98 69 96 70 / 20 50 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 99 67 96 70 / 20 40 20 30 Placitas........................ 93 67 91 69 / 20 50 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 96 68 94 70 / 20 50 30 30 Socorro......................... 101 71 98 72 / 30 40 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 61 85 64 / 50 60 30 30 Tijeras......................... 89 63 88 65 / 40 60 30 30 Edgewood........................ 89 60 88 62 / 50 60 30 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 59 88 61 / 40 60 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 84 58 83 60 / 50 70 20 20 Mountainair..................... 90 61 88 62 / 30 50 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 91 61 89 62 / 30 50 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 96 67 91 66 / 30 30 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 87 60 83 60 / 50 20 30 20 Capulin......................... 77 57 81 62 / 70 90 50 10 Raton........................... 82 59 83 59 / 80 70 50 10 Springer........................ 87 60 86 62 / 70 80 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 82 58 80 60 / 60 70 40 20 Clayton......................... 82 63 88 68 / 40 70 30 5 Roy............................. 83 62 85 65 / 60 80 30 5 Conchas......................... 93 68 93 70 / 30 60 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 91 66 88 68 / 20 60 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 94 68 94 71 / 20 60 10 0 Clovis.......................... 98 70 94 69 / 30 30 10 0 Portales........................ 99 71 95 70 / 20 30 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 98 70 94 71 / 20 40 5 0 Roswell......................... 104 74 98 74 / 20 20 5 0 Picacho......................... 96 67 91 66 / 30 30 20 10 Elk............................. 94 61 90 62 / 40 20 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ214-215-221>223-226>232. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...34