236
FXUS65 KABQ 011721 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

More heavy rainfall remains to track to develop once again over
the northwest two thirds of the state today. Shower and thunderstorms
will be capable of producing torrential rainfall with localized
flash flooding likely for all areas except the east central and
southeast plains. Drier air is forecast to move into far northern
NM Tuesday, focusing the heavy rainfall potential to central areas
over the southwest and west central mountains east into the
middle and lower Rio Grande Valley. On Wednesday, dry air moves
into the northwest quarter, resulting in a band of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms that stretch from southwest to
northeast across the state. This same dry air from the northwest
is forecast to continue to progress to the southeast on the 4th of
July, resulting in a dry day areawide. Gulf moisture, however,
returns behind a backdoor front moving into eastern NM Thursday
night and Friday. Heavy rain potential returns to much of eastern
NM and the Ruidoso area burn scars Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A batch of showers with embedded storms in northern NM is all that
remains from Sunday`s round of convection. Showers will likely
linger across the northwest corner of the state through the morning,
with low chances of rain elsewhere.

Currently New Mexico is sandwiched in between a strong H5 ~588dm
High over eastern TX and a trough over The Great Basin. The trough
axis can be easily picked out on water vapor imagery over N Arizona
since it separates the anomalously moist airmass over the desert
southwest from a very dry spring-like airmass in NV and UT. The
other feature to watch today is a subtle perturbation over northern
Mexico that is caught in the southwest flow around the aformentioned
High pressure. The trough axis approaching NM from the west will
provide the necessary lift to get storms off the ground this
afternoon and the shortwave will only expand the coverage of
convection as it moves into southern AZ/NM this afternoon. Due to
this combination of factors, a Flash Flood Watch was hoisted for
much of central and northern NM, including all of the recent burn
scars. Almost all hi-res models show a cell developing along the
east slopes of the Sacramento mountains around noon today, just to
the east of the complex of burn scars near Ruidoso. Steering flow
will move these storms to the east off the mountains, but there is
the potential for backbuilding storms into the burn areas. The
threat for flash flooding in that area will be greatest in the early
afternoon period, but storms later in the day cannot be ruled out
either. Storms today will move relatively quickly (10-20 kts), but
the potential for training storms and repeated rounds of convection
will enhance the risk of flash flooding for areas outside of burn
scars as well, including along the Rio Grande Valley. Model guidance
suggests the potential for another daily record PWAT at ABQ this
morning so rainfall will be efficient and storms will be able to
generate rainfall rates of 1"/hour with relative ease. The
aformentioned wave isn`t progged to move into the Rio Grande Valley
until the evening so the most likely time for flooding in
Albuquerque and Santa Fe won`t be until the mid to late evening
hours. The NBM suggests precipitation will wind down quickly after
Midnight, but the embedded wave and forcing from the upper-level
trough will likely help at least showers persist well into the
overnight hours, particularly in northern and eastern areas.
However, precipitation will become more stratiform in nature so the
flash flood risk will drop off quickly in the early morning hours.

Drier air enters from the north Tuesday, dropping precipitation
chances in the northern mtns near the CO border and across the
northwest. Deep moisture will still be entrenched over the southern
portion of the forecast area, helping fuel another round of
widespread showers and storms. Storms will move relatively quickly
once again, but will impact many of the same areas that see heavy
rainfall today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Dry westerly flow aloft makes a return to northern NM Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Despite the dry air, plenty of low level
moisture remains over central and eastern portions of the state
for another active day of afternoon thunderstorms in an area from
the lower Gila northeast to the Sangre de Cristo mountains,
northeast highlands including the HPCC scar as well as the Ruidoso
area burn scars. Storm motions will be to the east around 20 mph
west of the central mountain chain and northeast 10-20 mph east.
PWAT values remain above 1" southeast of a Catron to Union county
line Wednesday afternoon so the heavy rain potential from training
storms continues. Dry air is forecast to overtake the forecast
area on the 4th of July. Enough residual low level moisture is
possible for a brief shower or storms over the Sacramento mountains
Thursday afternoon, favoring locations mainly south of Lincoln
county. The dry air is rather short lived, however, with a
backdoor cold front on track to push south into eastern NM
Thursday night and Friday. Global models indicate a line of
convection may develop behind the front in far eastern NM late
Thursday night or Friday morning. Uncertainty in precipitation
chances for eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning remain
on the higher end until Friday afternoon when daytime heating and
stronger (~35 kt) bulk shear enter the equation. GFS continues to
indicate that the heavy rain potential continues for the eastern
half of NM Saturday. ECMWF forecast, however, keeps most of the
stronger convection near the TX line with weaker showers and
storms farther west toward the central mountain chain including
the Ruidoso area. While all of this is occurring, descending
motion from the increased convection in the eastern Pacific is
combining with the longwave Asian-Pacific jet wave pattern to
result in a stronger than average monsoon high over CA and NV
Friday and Saturday. As this stronger than average monsoon high
strengthens over NV early next week to near 600 dm @ 500 mb, a
"reverse monsoon" pattern develops with backdoor fronts bringing
in rich Gulf moisture to the state from the east and northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
in/near scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon
and overnight. MVFR conditions are likely with storms, but short-
lived IFR conditions are possible. Torrential downpours, gusts to
40-50mph, small hail and frequent lightning are all possible with
storms today through the evening hours. Highest impact
probabilities among our TAF sites are at KAEG/KABQ and KSAF late
this afternoon through the evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1238 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for at least the
next 7 days. Widespread to numerous showers and storms with wetting
rainfall are expected each afternoon and evening through Wednesday
with the heaviest precipitation expected in the high terrain of
western NM. Some locations may see in excess of 3" of rainfall
between now and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall will create
instances of flash flooding, particularly over recent burn scars and
areas with saturated soils. Drier air enters from the north
tomorrow, dropping precipitation chances and afternoon minimum
humidity values. Thursday looks like the driest day of the week with
only isolated storms in the south and afternoon humidity below 20%
areawide. Precipitation chances trend up again late week as a
backdoor front ushers in more moisture and gusty east winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  62  89  61 /  60  30   5   0
Dulce...........................  76  52  84  47 /  80  40   5   0
Cuba............................  79  56  82  55 /  90  50  30   5
Gallup..........................  80  56  86  54 /  70  40  20   5
El Morro........................  76  57  80  56 /  80  40  50  20
Grants..........................  80  56  83  55 /  80  50  60  10
Quemado.........................  80  58  81  57 /  80  60  70  20
Magdalena.......................  83  63  82  62 /  80  60  80  30
Datil...........................  81  59  79  59 /  80  50  90  30
Reserve.........................  86  58  87  56 /  70  50  80  30
Glenwood........................  90  67  93  65 /  60  50  70  30
Chama...........................  72  49  78  47 /  80  50  20   5
Los Alamos......................  78  60  78  61 /  90  70  40  10
Pecos...........................  81  57  83  58 /  70  60  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  75  49  79  46 /  80  60  30  10
Red River.......................  67  48  70  46 /  80  50  30  10
Angel Fire......................  73  46  75  42 /  60  60  30  10
Taos............................  80  54  83  52 /  70  60  20  10
Mora............................  79  54  80  52 /  60  60  40  10
Espanola........................  85  60  86  59 /  80  70  20   5
Santa Fe........................  81  59  81  60 /  70  60  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  84  60  85  59 /  70  60  30  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  66  86  66 /  80  60  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  66  87  67 /  70  50  40  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  66  89  64 /  70  50  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  66  88  65 /  70  50  40  10
Belen...........................  91  64  89  63 /  70  50  50  20
Bernalillo......................  88  65  88  65 /  70  50  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  90  62  88  61 /  70  50  40  20
Corrales........................  89  64  88  66 /  70  50  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  90  63  88  63 /  70  50  40  20
Placitas........................  85  65  85  64 /  70  50  30  10
Rio Rancho......................  88  66  87  66 /  70  50  30  10
Socorro.........................  94  68  91  68 /  70  60  60  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  61  81  62 /  80  50  40  10
Tijeras.........................  84  62  83  59 /  80  50  40  20
Edgewood........................  84  61  84  57 /  70  40  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  58  86  56 /  70  50  40  20
Clines Corners..................  81  57  81  58 /  70  50  40  20
Mountainair.....................  85  60  84  59 /  70  60  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  87  60  86  60 /  60  60  70  30
Carrizozo.......................  89  67  91  67 /  40  50  60  40
Ruidoso.........................  82  60  84  62 /  50  30  70  40
Capulin.........................  83  58  83  56 /  50  40  40  30
Raton...........................  87  57  88  57 /  50  40  20  20
Springer........................  89  60  90  58 /  50  50  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  81  58  82  57 /  50  50  40  20
Clayton.........................  92  66  91  64 /  20  30  20  30
Roy.............................  86  63  88  61 /  30  50  30  20
Conchas.........................  93  69  95  67 /  30  40  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  89  66  90  65 /  40  50  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  96  69  96  68 /  20  30  10  30
Clovis..........................  96  70  97  70 /   5  20  10  40
Portales........................  96  70  98  70 /   5  10   5  30
Fort Sumner.....................  94  70  95  69 /  20  30  20  30
Roswell.........................  99  74 102  75 /  20  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  90  65  92  67 /  50  30  50  30
Elk.............................  88  63  90  63 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ203-204-207-210>226-229-
241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...11