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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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718 FXUS63 KABR 120954 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 454 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are slight chances to chances (15-45%) of showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon look to remain along and east of the James River Valley and mainly east of I-29. Some storms may become strong to severe. - High temperatures today are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. - A storm system Friday night through Saturday night and early Sunday will bring a 30-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. The storm system may produce locally heavy rainfall over eastern SD and western MN. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 453 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Showers and general thunderstorms have developed early this morning on the nose of a llj. Over the next few hours, sfc and 850mb winds are expected to become more southwesterly with westerly winds aloft. That direction lends itself more to drying, downslope winds rather than moisture converging, convection developing flow, so will need to see if that cuts off some of this activity. But, either way, all of the precip is expected to exit to the east later this morning. Models then diverge considerably from each other for this afternoon and evening. Most do not have any further convective development over this cwa. A couple, including the NAMNest and the ARW, have a few storms developing either in west central MN or in Deuel county between 22z and 0z beore quickly exiting. SPC`s expansive slight risk seems overdone to the west given these solutions. There is a corridor of 3000 to 4000 J/kg of CAPE on models like the RAP with 45 kts of bulk shear along and east of the Coteau, so if any supercells do form, they would produce large hail and strong winds. Confidence is low on late afternoon development. A weak baroclinic zone sets up tonight, though some guidance keeps it farther south while others have it as far north as ND. Still, added in some pops for tonight, though precip will have to overcome the mid level dry air that is also moving in on westerly flow. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 453 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The long term portion of the forecast begins on Thursday night with a surface high pressure over the region with an upper level ridge building over the northern Rockies. A deep upper level trough over the desert southwest will begin lifting northeast by Friday morning with perhaps some return flow developing over the Black Hills of South Dakota. A weak shortwave crossing the area Friday afternoon may cause convective developed over western South Dakota with the convection spreading eastward Friday night through Saturday. An increasing 30-40 knot LLJ, as well as upper level support for an upper level trough should cause more robust convection Saturday morning, mainly over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota. The NBM maintains a 20-35% chance of one inch of QPF over a 24 hour period ending at 0Z Sunday. Eastern and especially southeastern SD has the best potential of seeing moderate rainfall. Convection from this initial round of storms should push east of the CWA Saturday morning with a period of dry conditions possible Saturday through Sunday. However, an upper level trough and surface low pressure system crossing North Dakota Saturday night into Sunday may produce convection along the ND/SD border. Warm 700 mb temps of +12C may limit the thunderstorm potential. Beyond Sunday, the weather pattern remains active with two additional low pressure systems crossing the region, bring more showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, outside of any thunderstorms that could move over a TAF site. At this point the potential for thunderstorms at any 1 location at a certain time is too low to include in the forecast. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...KF