679
FXUS61 KAKQ 261854
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
254 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the area this evening and crosses the
region tonight into Thursday, bringing the a chance for showers
and thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region late
Thursday through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late this
  afternoon into tonight, with a few storms potentially being
  strong or severe with damaging wind gusts to primary threat.

- Some beneficial rain is likely across northern portions of
  the area, although it will be hit and miss due to the nature
  of the storms.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows quasi-zonal flow over the Mid-
Atlantic with an upper trough over the Great Lakes (extending south
into the mid-MS River Valley). At the surface, high pressure is
centered off the Carolina coast with a lee trough across VA. There
is a cold front which is still well to our NW. Temperatures
have risen into the 90s area-wide, with dew pts in the mid-upper
60s inland/lower-mid 70s near the coast. Heat indices are
generally 100-104F, but have seen a couple of spots near the SE
VA coast touch 105F. Skies are partly to mostly sunny with a
10-15 mph SW wind.

Forecast soundings show that the boundary layer remains capped prior
to some height falls arriving this evening and especially tonight.
Still think that a few tstms will develop in the higher elevations
of W/NW VA near that lee trough by 3-5 PM and push into NW portions
of the area by early evening. Expect tstms to actually become more
widespread after 7-8 PM as the better height falls arrive. Any storm
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts given very strong
sfc heating, a deep well mixed boundary layer, and some mid-level
drying. In fact, forecast soundings from most models continue to show
DCAPE values of 1200-1500 J/kg through this evening. Storms
will likely be ongoing (mainly along/N of I-64) through ~3 AM
(though the severe threat diminishes after 12-1 AM) as a 30-40
kt southwesterly LLJ may help the convection hold on a bit
longer than we normally see. There are hints that the convection
may get a bit farther south than previously expected. Still,
locations south of a Farmville-Petersburg- Norfolk line will
likely see little to no rain through Thursday morning, with
localized rain totals in excess of 1" likely north of I-64.
Could definitely see a few totals of 2" across northern portions
of the FA. Convection gradually diminishes in coverage early
Thu AM. Lows tonight will mainly be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A few thunderstorms are possible across SE VA/NE NC Thursday
afternoon-evening.

- Seasonally hot on both Thursday and Friday.

The cold front slowly pushes south across southern VA and NE NC
Thursday as high pressure and a drier airmass build into the
northern tier of the area. Showers/tstms are expected to redevelop
along the boundary Thursday afternoon with the highest chc across SE
VA and NE NC. However, there is some uncertainty with respect to
where convection develops on Thu (mainly regarding whether it will
be in srn VA/NE NC or just to our south). Coverage/placement of
tstms Thursday aftn will depend on the evolution of overnight
convection. High temperatures return to seasonally hot levels
ranging from the mid 80s to near 90F. Showers/tstms largely
dissipate or move to our south by late Thursday evening,
although some isolated activity could linger into the early
overnight hours over far srn VA/NE NC. High pressure builds
across New England Thursday night into Friday following the
frontal passage. Lows Thursday night fall into the mid 60s-lower
70s. Easterly flow Friday will keep highs in the lower to mid
80s along the coast, and seasonally hot inland with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90F. Surface high pressure initially
settles off the coast Friday night into early Saturday, with
some moisture returning as a weak warm front lifts through the
area. Therefore, there is a slight chc to low chc of showers and
perhaps a tstm from central VA and the Piedmont to the MD
Eastern Shore Friday night into early Saturday morning. Lows
Friday night are mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat rebuilds across the region Saturday and Sunday and with more
humidity, with dangerous heat indices likely across parts of the
area on Sunday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night ahead of a cold front.

- A brief break in the heat is likely early next week before very
hot weather potentially returns by Independence Day.

The heat builds back over the local area this weekend as high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast and the low-level flow once
again increases out of the SW. 850mb temps rise to around 20C on
Saturday, and to 20-22C on Sunday. This will support high temps in
the mid 90s both days. Aftn dewpoints will be in the lower to mid
70s (mid 70s mainly toward the coast) during peak heating on both
days. This is supported by the deterministic guidance and MOS
guidance, but is below the mid 70s-80F shown by the NBM (which is
likely too high especially given how dry it has been). Resultant
heat indices are in the 100-105F range on Saturday, and 105-109F for
much of the CWA Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are
possible on Saturday afternoon (mainly W of I-95), with a better chc
of showers/tstms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the
cold front drops through the region. A slight reprieve in the heat
is likely early next week in the wake of the cold front as the
12z/26 EPS and GEFS continue to depict below average 850mb
temperature anomalies Monday and Tuesday. However, the ensemble
guidance also surges the heat back into the region by the middle of
next week just prior to Independence Day with forecast highs well
into the 90s for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR/mainly dry with SCT cumulus through 22-00z. A cold front
then approaches from the NW this evening and drops into the
region tonight. There is a 40-60% chc of evening/overnight
tstms at RIC/SBY, a 30-40% chc at ORF/PHF, and a 15-20% chc at
ECG. The most likely timing for tstms is between 00-06z at
RIC/SBY, and from 03-08z at PHF/ORF. A few tstms could produce
strong wind gusts (to 30-50 kt) along with brief IFR/LIFR flight
restrictions in heavy rain. Overall coverage of showers/tstms
diminishes after 06z/2 AM. Some MVFR stratus is possible between
08-15z Thursday morning, but CIGs should otherwise remain VFR
through the period.

This front will be slow to push through southern VA and NC NE
Thursday with a 30-50% chc of redeveloping aftn/early evening
showers/tstms (highest at ECG...with lower chances at ORF).
High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.
There is another decent chance for showers/tstms later Sunday
into Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

SW winds mainly 5-15 kt will become S and increase to 10-20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt by late this aftn into this evening in advance of
a cold front. Waves will build to 2-3 ft in the Bay, and seas will
build to 3-5 ft in the coastal waters. So, SCAs are in effect for
the mouth of the Bay, all coastal waters and the Currituck Sound
from thru 1 AM (4 AM north of Parramore Island). That weakening cold
front will push through the region late tonight into Thu aftn. NE
winds expected late Thu night through Fri morning, then E and SE
winds for Fri aftn into Sat morning, as high pressure slides by to
the north then off the srn New England coast. Low rip current risk
is forecast for all beaches today and Thu. Moderate rip risk on
Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ633-634-
     654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JDM/TMG