859
FXUS64 KAMA 020537 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Hotter temperatures and storm chances continue through the short
term period. Showers and storms are possible across the western
Panhandles this afternoon and evening as storms move in from NM.
Temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will increase into the upper 90s
and up over 100 degrees by peak heating. Additional showers and
storms are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening with higher
chances across the entire area. Some of the storms could be
severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall all
possible.

Early this afternoon, visible satellite imagery shows cumulus
developing across eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle.
Further west, storms are starting to fire off of the higher
terrain near Raton and are starting to slide off to the
east/northeast. Additional showers and storms should form later on
this afternoon into the evening hours as better lift provided by a
shortwave trough moves across the western/northwestern portions of
the CWA. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast for
this area and activity should diminish by around midnight tonight.
Storms are not expected to be severe today, but cannot rule out
some moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

By Tuesday afternoon, the center of the H500 high pressure system
should move off to the east leaving the Panhandles solidly in
southwest to west flow aloft. Closer to the surface, southwest low
level winds extending down to the surface should allow for
stronger WAA during the daytime hours. Surface temperatures are
forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s for the west/northwest with
just over 100 degrees elsewhere. With the southeast having the
higher potential for air temperatures or heat index values at 105
or higher, have opted to issue a Heat Advisory for tomorrow
afternoon which includes Palo Duro Canyon State Park. The main
limiting factor for hotter temperatures further north will be a
weak cold front moving down the Plains tomorrow afternoon and the
front may make it to the northern Panhandles by late afternoon.
Along and behind the front, another round of showers and storms
are forecast to develop beginning tomorrow afternoon and
continuing through Wednesday morning. Sufficient instability and
shear look to be in place for a few storms to potentially become
severe, with large hail up to half dollars and wind gusts up to 60
mph. The main concern may become heavy rain and flash flooding by
Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. PWAT values are
forecast to be above 1.5 inches across the Panhandles and storms
may potentially train along a cold front as it sits across the
region during this time frame. Will have to keep a close eye on
model trends as guidance currently is not as favorable for heavy
rain, but that could change if some of the high end outlier
rainfall solutions come to fruition.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Typical summertime temperatures will continue through mid week
across the Panhandles before a pattern change occurs and highs
cool back down into the 80s and 90s Friday through this upcoming
weekend. To the delight of all, daily chances for showers and
storms will continue each day during this time frame.

A subtle cooldown is forecast for Wednesday as the weak cold front
ushers in a slightly cooler airmass across the region. Highs
should range from the 80s north to mid to upper 90s south for
high temperatures. Precipitation chances will continue throughout
the day as moisture will still be prevalent across the area and
PVA supplied by shortwaves embedded in the upper level flow should
provide enough lift for at least isolated to scattered showers or
storms. A few of the storms will have the potential to be severe
on Wednesday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. For Independence Day, highs
should be comparable to those on Wednesday. Another front is
forecast to move over the region on Thursday afternoon. Current
expectation is that the front may be delayed enough for
temperatures to rise into the 90s to potentially 100 before
cooling down behind the front. If the front comes in quicker,
temperatures will need to be bumped down a few degrees over what
is currently in the forecast. Behind the front, breezy north to
northeast winds are expected along with slightly higher moisture.
Wherever the front ends up being located as a subtle disturbance
passes over the area, another round of showers and storms could be
possible during the evening hours on Thursday. Will be keeping a
close watch on this period as this could have impacts on outdoor
activities on Independence Day evening.

Going into Friday through this upcoming weekend, ridging will
build across the western CONUS with troughing over the central US,
keeping the Panhandles underneath west to northwest flow aloft.
Highs on Friday should be the coolest of the upcoming 7 days
before the temperatures slowly rise back up during the weekend.
The daily chances for showers and storms looks to continue through
this time period as disturbances should provide enough lift for
storms to develop and move across portions of the area.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Southwest winds are expected to pick up into the 15 to 20 knot
range with higher gusts by mid morning. A cold front will move
through the GUY TAF site this afternoon switching the wind to the
north and northeast at around 15 knots. The cold front will be
very close to DHT by the end of this forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the cold front late this afternoon and
evening, so have added a PROB30 group for GUY and DHT.
Thunderstorms are expected to be more isolated toward AMA, so have
left the mention of thunderstorms out for this site. Skies are
expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  94  71  97 /  50  30  30  10
Beaver OK                  68  89  68  92 /  60  20  30   0
Boise City OK              63  87  63  88 /  40  30  20   0
Borger TX                  74  97  73 101 /  60  30  30   0
Boys Ranch TX              71  94  70  98 /  50  30  30   0
Canyon TX                  71  94  70  96 /  50  30  30  10
Clarendon TX               73  97  75  99 /  30  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 65  91  64  94 /  40  30  20   0
Guymon OK                  66  90  65  91 /  60  20  30   0
Hereford TX                71  96  70  99 /  40  30  30  10
Lipscomb TX                70  93  72  98 /  60  20  30  10
Pampa TX                   71  94  72  97 /  50  20  30  10
Shamrock TX                74 100  76 101 /  20  10  20  10
Wellington TX              75 101  78 102 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...15