600
AXNT20 KNHC 041748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 19.2N 83.4W at 04/1800 UTC or
120 nm W of Grand Cayman, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt
with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently 37 ft. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection is observed elsewhere within
210 nm of the center. A westward to west-northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or two, taking the core of Beryl away
from the Cayman Islands through this afternoon and then over the
Yucatan Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move
northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Beryl
is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Weakening is forecast during the next day or two, though
Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane until it makes landfall on
the Yucatn Peninsula. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands today. Over the
Yucatn Peninsula, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, later today
into Friday. Scattered instances of flash flooding are
anticipated. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and
flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available
at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf. Large swells
generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast
of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. These swells are
expected to spread to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of
Central America later today and to eastern Mexico and much of the
Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These swells are expected
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the
latest Beryl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from 22N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The broad tropical wave is
embedded in dry Saharan air, which is currently suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 69W,
south of 21N from the Mona Passage and into Venezuela, moving
quickly west at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 14N to 18N between 65W and 75W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted across Puerto Rico, the US
Virgin Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. Development, if
any, of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph during the
next several days. The system is forecast to cross the Yucatan
Peninsula late this weekend and enter the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by early next week. Regardless of development, gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the
Greater Antilles over the next few days. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days is LOW. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 06N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 05N53W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, which is forecast to enter the Gulf waters Sat
morning.

1019 mb high pressure anchored in the NE Gulf provides for light
to gentle E to SE winds across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft.
Building seas are near 5 ft in the Yucatn Channel, due to
arriving SE swell from Hurricane Beryl.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl will move to 19.5N 85.1W this
evening, inland to 20.1N 87.9W Fri morning, move inland and
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 90.3W Fri evening, 22.0N
92.4W Sat morning, 23.0N 94.2W Sat evening, and 23.9N 95.7W Sun
morning. Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.5N 97.5W
early Mon. There remains some uncertainty in the track forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea.

Outside of Hurricane Beryl, which dominates the NW Caribbean,
trades are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean and gentle
to moderate in the central Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft, with local
peaks to 8 ft south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl will move to 19.5N 85.1W this
evening, inland to 20.1N 87.9W Fri morning, move inland and weaken
to a tropical storm near 20.9N 90.3W Fri evening, 22.0N 92.4W Sat
morning, 23.0N 94.2W Sat evening, and 23.9N 95.7W Sun morning.
Beryl will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.5N 97.5W early Mon. A
surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls
is expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean
through Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the central
and NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N58W and
continues to 28N69W, where it transitions to a stationary front
to 31N78W. Fresh to strong S winds are within 120 nm ahead of the
cold front north of 26N. Scattered moderate convection is north
of 25N between 55W and 65W ahead of the cold front. The remainder
of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of subtropical
high pressure centered north of the area and a large outbreak of
the Saharan Air Layer. Satellite scatterometer data received this
morning shows light to gentle trades across the basin, reflecting
the relaxed pressure gradient. Seas are 4-6 ft, with a local peak
to 7 ft near the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl in the NW Caribbean
and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic basin. A weak
cold front stretches from 31N58W to 28N70W, continuing as
stationary to 31N77W. The front will stall and dissipate through
the end of the week. High pressure will prevail otherwise with
mainly gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near
Hispaniola at times.

$$
Mahoney