765
AXNT20 KNHC 290609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Beryle is centered near 9.3N 43.6W
at 29/0300 UTC or 965 nm ESE of Barbados, and moving W at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is seen near and west of the center within 90 nm of
9.6N45.3W. Seas at 12 ft are found up to 90 nm NW of the center.
Beryle is expected to move west-northwestward near the current
speed during the next few days. This will bring Beryle across the
Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Sunday night
and Monday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryle is
forecasted to become a hurricane late this weekend. Seas
surrounding the center will build further and become high later
this weekend. Meanwhile, swells generated by Beryle are going to
reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday.
These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and Offshore Waters Forecast at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail.
For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on
Beryle, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in the
northern part of Central America. The latest model guidance
continues to suggest high precipitation amounts through Tue. As
the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls
are expected at Belize, eastern Guatemala and northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula through this weekend. These rains could shift
northwestward over the coastal areas of Mexico along the Gulf of
Mexico early next week. It is recommended that residents in the
aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information from
their local weather services. Please refer to the Tropical Weather
Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of Central America.

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Invest AL94):
A broad trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
at the Gulf of Honduras and offshore of Belize and Quintana Roo
State of Mexico. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas at 7
to 10 ft dominate the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This feature is
going to move northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and
emerge into the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun morning.
There is a medium chance this system might develop further while
in the Bay of Campeche. Please refer to the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W from 13N southward,
and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 04N to 09N between 23W and 31W. Conditions across the
central and western Atlantic remain conducive for development.
Therefore, a gradual development is possible on this wave in the
next 2 to 7 days.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of Barbados near 57W
from 18N southward into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 12N between
54W and Trinidad/Tobago.

A western Caribbean tropical wave (AL94) is near 86W from the
Yucatan Channel southward through the Gulf of Honduras into
Honduras and Nicaragua. It is moving west-northwestward at 5 to
10 kt. Refer to the Special Features section for wind and sea
conditions, convection and potential for tropical development.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward across 08N25W to
09N38W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the trough
from 06N to 09N east of 18W. There is no ITCZ present based on the
latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on Invest
AL94.

A broad surface ridge runs west-southwestward from the Florida Big
Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong E to
ESE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central
Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh ESE
to SSE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the western Gulf. Gentle
to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient exist between the
aforementioned surface ridge and a broad trough of low
pressure/tropical wave (AL94) at the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
This will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and building seas
across the Yucatan Channel and south-central Gulf through the
weekend. Gentle winds should prevail in the northeastern Gulf
through the weekend. Conditions are forecast to improve across the
Gulf Mon through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Tropical Storm
Beryle, AL94 and heavy rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America.

Convergent southeasterly winds are triggering scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba, and near Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Other than the northwestern basin mentioned in
the Special Features section, gentle to moderate with locally
fresh E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Beryl is forecasted to
strengthen into a hurricane near 11.7N 56.5W Sun evening, then
move to east of the Windward Islands near 12.5N 60.0W Mon
morning, and then across the Windward Islands into the eastern
Caribbean Sea near 13.6N 63.6W Mon evening. Beryl will change
little in intensity as it moves to 16.0N 71.0W late Tue, then to
17.8N 77.8W late Wed. Meanwhile, AL94 will support fresh to strong
E to SE winds and building seas in the northwestern basin through
the Yucatan Channel through Sat night. AL94 is then forecast to
move west- northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche Sat
night or early Sun. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades
will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong in the central Caribbean
as a tropical wave moves through later in the weekend through
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Beryle.

Two elongated upper-level lows, one near 28N69W and another one
near 28N53W are inducing isolated thunderstorms north of 24N
between 51W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge stretches
southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores High across 31N55W and the
central Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. This feature is
supporting gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft
north of 25N between 25W and 60W. Farther west, light to gentle
winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are evident north of 22N west of 60W.
Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh with
locally strong N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist north of
14N between the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the tropical
Atlantic from 09N to 22N/25N between 25W/30W, outside the
influence of Tropical Storm Beryle, moderate to fresh ENE to E
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly
winds and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed
swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N through
the next several days. A decaying cold front may drop south of 31N
Tue through Wed. Meanwhile, the ridge will support moderate to
fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N into early next
week. Tropical Storm Beryl will move to 9.7N 46.2W Sat morning,
10.4N 49.7W Sat evening and near 11.0N 53.1W Sun morning. It is
expected to strengthen into a hurricane near 11.7N 56.5W Sun
evening, then move to 12.5N 60.0W Mon morning, and 13.6N 63.6W Mon
evening. Beryl will change little in intensity as it moves to
16.0N 71.0W late Tue, then to 17.8N 77.8W late Wed.

$$

Chan