599
AXNT20 KNHC 252159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 28W, south from
the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-13N and
between 22W-30W.

A newly analyzed tropical wave is along 42W, S of 15W, moving west
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 09N between 31W and 39W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of Puerto
Rico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection prevails south of 16N between 62W-69W.

A n eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of
Jamaica, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is evident within 120 NM on either sides of the boundaries. The E
North Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica eastward
to a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia. Convection near this trough and
low is primarily associated with a tropical wave, described in the
section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weakening high pressure continues to dominate the basin, providing
dry conditions, although a surface trough in the SW Gulf has
become more pronounced this afternoon. Winds are light to gentle
with seas of 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking
ahead, wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the
upcoming weekend as a strong tropical wave, with some potential of
tropical cyclone development.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north
of the area and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to
locally strong trades across the E and central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate in the W Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft over the E
and central Caribbean and 2-5 ft over the W Caribbean. Convection
in the basin is primarily associated with the tropical waves
described above.

For the forecast, environmental conditions could support some
gradual development of a tropical wave once it reaches the
western Caribbean Sea late this week. Fresh to strong winds and
moderate seas will accompany this wave across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu. Winds and seas could further
increase across the NW Caribbean late this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at 32N42W has surface
ridging associated with it extending west-southwestward to 26N75W
and east- northeastward north of our waters. The moderate
pressure gradient between the ridging and the ITCZ/monsoon trough
is causing generally moderate to fresh trades south of 27N along
with seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of 27N, gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft
prevail. A surface trough is located near the Bahamas from 24N74W
to 27N70W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is occurring
from 24N-28N between 69W-78W. A Saharan Air Layer with substantial
dry, dusty air is present from 10N-20N east of 55W as seen in the
Geocolor and total precipitable water satellite imagery.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will
dominate the area during the forecast period producing a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow with moderate seas E of 75W and NE of
the Bahamas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas will
prevail due to the presence of a surface trough.

$$
Konarik