848
FXUS61 KBGM 010801
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
401 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today with dry conditions expected for
the first half of the week. A frontal system moves into the
region Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 AM Update...

Surface high pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our
region keeping conditions dry today with mostly sunny skies.
Regardless upper level trough remains overhead for most of the
day before gradually moving east. This keeps northwest flow in
place with cooler temperatures expected as highs will range in
the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Breezy conditions are
expected this morning and afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots.
Clear conditions persist into the evening and overnight hours
with calming winds. This makes it a favorable night for
radiational cooling with forecasted lows ranging in the upper
40s to low 50s across the area. Went with the NBM 10th
percentile to adjust temperatures lower accordingly. Surface
high pressure centers over our region on Tuesday with another
sunny day in store and lighter winds. Upper level ridge begins
to push into the region with southerly flow returning. This
allows temperatures to return to the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
240 PM Update:

High pressure will be in control during most of the short term
period, which will will bring mostly sunny skies. Temperatures
on Tuesday will be at seasonable levels with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s. With dew points in the 50s, it will also be
rather comfortable outside with relatively low humidity. The
high pressure system moves east of the area on Wednesday, which
will bring a southerly return flow and warmer temperatures
(highs in the 80s). Dew points will be on the rise as well
(rising into the lower to mid 60s). Late in the day, a frontal
system will approach the area, which may spark some isolated
showers or thunderstorms west of I-81. That being said, the
majority of the day looks dry and the majority of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will likely hold off until Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
240 PM Update:

The aforementioned frontal system will push through the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, which will bring showers and
thunderstorms into the area. The front then likely stalls
somewhere in the area, which will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast for Thursday, mainly across Northeast
PA. That being said, with uncertainty regarding where the front
stalls, Thursday`s forecast (4th of July) is rather uncertain at
this time. Another wave tracks northeast and into our region by
Friday, with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Models
begin to diverge for the rest of the period, therefore relied on
NBM PoPs through Sunday. Temperatures during this time frame
will be warm with highs ranging in the lower to upper 80s with
overnight lows in the low to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stratus deck is spread across the area from northwest to
southeast. This is associated with an upper trough that will be
pushing through the area tonight and exiting to the east during
the morning hours tomorrow. This system combined with winds out
of the north-northwest can produce spotty to scattered lake
enhanced rain showers.

Expecting ceilings to bounce between categories for the next few
hours. TEMPOS have been included at all sites with ceilings as
low as IFR possible at SYR/ITH/BGM/ELM. RME will most likely
alternate between MVFR to Fuel Alt with MVFR ceilings possibly
making it down to AVP. Ceilings will gradually improve mid- to-
late morning tomorrow as high pressure builds in and clouds
scatter out.

Winds are expected to remain gusty out of the north-northwest
through the evening with gusts of 20-25 mph before easing a
little overnight. Winds are expected to increase again tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through early Tuesday morning...VFR except for
valley fog development likely for KELM.

Late Tuesday morning through Wednesday daytime...VFR.

Wednesday evening through Friday...Chances of showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK/ES