158
FXUS61 KBGM 272228
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
628 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet end to the work week is expected with seasonal temperatures.
The next system moves in this weekend with periods of rain and
thunderstorms, mainly Saturday and Saturday night. Showers linger
into Sunday with dry conditions returning early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

With the evening updates, continued the mention for patchy fog
overnight. However, confidence remains low with some dry
advection this evening with dewpoints falling into the 40`s.

235 PM Update...

High pressure will remain in control through at least Friday. For
tonight, winds become light and skies eventually clear out. This
will allow for good radiational cooling, which could lead to patchy
fog or low stratus. Forecast soundings show a shallow inversion at
the surface but are then dry just above the surface and throughout
the rest of the profile. So confidence is low that fog will develop,
but maybe lingering moisture from rainfall yesterday will contribute
some. Otherwise, temperatures will fall into the 40s and low 50s.
This forecast did go slightly below guidance due to the clearing
skies, though high clouds will move in late tonight.

Friday will be pleasant with sunny skies and temps climbing into the
mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight, temps fall into the 50s and 60s. High
pressure will drift eastward, and weak shortwaves will pass through
the region ahead of the next system. Passing showers will be
possible after midnight. Coverage remains uncertain as guidance
differs on how quickly showers spread east across the region. Due to
this, this update favored a blend of HREF and NBM guidance as well
as some manual edits for PoPs during the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

There are no significant changes with the 12Z model guidance for
this period. SPC and WPC both have the region in a marginal
risks for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding. The more
likely potential hazard will be localized flash flooding. As far
as severe thunderstorms...there is a strong low level jet the
pushes in Saturday afternoon, but forecast soundings are showing
very little if any instability during the day Saturday. At this
time, the thinking is for possibly some embedded thunder among
heavy rain showers, but severe threat looks quite low.

315 AM Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west early
Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture into
the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud
layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy
rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash
flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be
unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit
instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday
night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
220 PM Update...

Cold front will exit the region Sunday morning, but with upper
trough pushing overhead, some diurnal showers (possibly lake
enhanced) will be possible during the afternoon. Overnight
temperatures behind the front will be cooler with lows ranging
in the low to upper 50s.

Surface high pressure moves in overhead on Monday, bringing dry
and warm conditions through the first half of the week. The
pattern becomes zonal mid week with several perturbations
pushing through the flow that will bring our next rain chances
Wednesday and through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through this entire TAF period. West-
northwest winds will remain through the afternoon hours with speeds
around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts. These winds
will diminish into the late evening hours below 10 kts before
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will remain calm
through at least early Friday afternoon. Fog may be possible at
most terminals, exception being AVP and SYR, in the early
morning hours on Friday. However, confidence is low because
model guidance is suggesting very little fog, but forecast
soundings show a possibility for fog or low stratus. For now,
this was handled by tempo groups.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY
terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...BTL