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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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130 FXUS64 KBMX 240527 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or two is slowly drifting to the south. As of Midnight the line is now along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for this thin line to slowly make it through Birmingham by sunrise and continue south to Montgomery by 8 to 9 AM. The trends for today will be complicated as the north will warm up quite a bit today behind the line, but with drier dewpoints. Areas south of I-85 will warm up early then fall some with the clouds and rain by mid-day. There may be a warm up again late afternoon, just before sunset, so highs may be late here. Areas between I-20 and I-85 will see a slower start to the day, but will still warm up nicely by the afternoon. Any rain should be done by sunset. While there could be a few isolated spots of 105F heat indices, the widespread concern is not expected today. Fair weather tonight, with lows dropping into the mid 60s to low 70s. Model guidance continues to trend slightly lower with dewpoints on Tuesday, as drier air arrives behind the weak front that settles to our south. This will keep heat indices below 105F despite temperatures in the mid 90s to 100F. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Saturday) Issued at 244 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024 Best rain chances for the week arrive Wednesday, with a shortwave trough arriving from the northwest during the day. It slowly shifts southward, with the focus for thunderstorms activity shifting to south of I-20 on Thursday. As stated in the previous discussion, alot of uncertainty this far out regarding MCS development, but this pattern would support it. Heat returns for the end of the week, with a more moist airmass remaining in place. This keeps heat indices around 105F next weekend. 14 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024 A line of isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a storm or two is slowly drifting to the south. As of 5z the line is now along the northern edge of Alabama. Look for VCSH as early as 8z in the northern 5 sites. Added in a tempo for 2 hours at these sites as well. Opted to leave thunder out of the TAFs as the percentages are below 20 percent. MGM will see this line after 12z and TOI after 15z. Winds will be out of the west to northwest later today behind this line at 6 to 8 kts. Outside of the rain chances, VFR conditions are expected. Will amend if a TS becomes more probable. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two will be possible across the southern half of the area. Drier air arrives behind the front. For today, minimum RH values will range from 30-40 percent for much of the area, and 40-45 percent across the southern third of the area. On Tuesday, minimum RH values of 24-35 percent are possible. Overnight RH values recover to above 70 percent tonight and Tuesday night. Isolated storms may be possible across the far south on Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday and Thursday. 20ft winds will be from the northwest today and north on Tuesday, at less than 8 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 96 66 97 70 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 95 68 96 71 / 20 0 0 10 Birmingham 97 73 99 74 / 20 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 97 72 99 74 / 20 0 0 10 Calera 97 72 100 74 / 30 0 0 10 Auburn 96 72 96 74 / 30 0 10 10 Montgomery 96 73 98 73 / 40 0 10 10 Troy 95 72 98 72 / 40 0 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...16