314
FXUS64 KBRO 010516 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A tropical disturbance in the southern Bay of Campeche could become
a Tropical Cyclone before making landfall in Mexico. The NHC has an
80% chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.
However, the system is far enough south that no additional impacts
are expected for Deep South Texas.

The dominant feature for the short term period will be an upper-
level ridge over North Texas, that will slowly shift east through
the period. As the deep tropical moisture moves out of the area
tonight and is replaced with drier mid level flow, rain chances are
expected to diminish and remain near zero through the remainder of
the period.

Hot temperatures are expected to continue through the period, with
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s Monday afternoon. Heat
indices are expected to peak around 109 Monday afternoon, likely
remaining just below criteria for a Heat Advisory, though a Special
Weather Statement may be needed.

Temperatures tonight are expected to fall into the upper 70s to low
80s. Overnight lows Monday night are expected to range from the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The mid-level ridge that is centered over the ArkLaTx region will
continue to produce subsidence over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley through the majority of the long term forecast period.
As such mostly rain free conditions and above normal temperatures
are expected.  Meanwhile, the southeasterly flow is expected to also
continue through the long term period, which will transport more
warm and moist air into the area as well.

As for the temperatures, starting with the high temperatures for the
long term forecast period, the range is expected to be mostly in the
90s, but a few places could get into the triple digits. The heat
indices are not expected to meet Heat Advisory criteria during the
period, but Special Weather Statements could still be issued as the
range of the heat indices will be 105 to 109. As for the low
temperatures, they are expected to stay mostly in the 70s, however a
few places could get into the low 80s.

Finally, Hurricane Beryl, currently a category 4 major hurricane is
approaching the Windward Islands and is forecasted to reach the
Yucatan Peninsula towards the end of the work week. Beryl is then
expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico by next weekend. At this point
the track is too uncertain to say where Beryl will be heading, but
interests along the Lower Texas Coast should continue to monitor
the progress of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Convection is ending across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley, and MVFR to VFR will prevail through the overnight hours.
On Monday, VFR will prevail with light winds. Convection cannot
be ruled out, but it is forecast to be too isolated to warrant
inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tonight through Monday night...High pressure is expected to
remain in place over the Northern Gulf through the period,
allowing conditions to improve over the Coastal Gulf waters.
Elevated seas tonight are expected to subside by Monday morning,
with light to moderate seas continuing for the remainder of the
period. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the Gulf
waters tonight

The NHC has an 80% chance for tropical cyclone development in the
next 48 hours over the Bay of Campeche, however the system is far
enough south that no impacts are expected for the Lower Texas Coast.

Tuesday through Next Sunday...With the high pressure in control over
the Gulf of Mexico, favorable conditions are expected through next
Sunday. Light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate
seas are expected through the period. Current model guidance
indicates that Beryl will be entering the Gulf of Mexico sometime
next weekend. All interests along the Lower Texas Coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  95  80  95 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               75  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 78  99  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  98  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  83  88 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  92  79  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$