Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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743 FXUS61 KBTV 011645 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1245 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the North Country today with dry weather until late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Temperatures will be seasonably cool today, but then trending warmer for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1242 PM EDT Monday...After some initial clearing, clouds have redeveloped over mainly the higher terrain this afternoon, while valley locations are enjoying more sunshine. Temperatures are very pleasant, in the upper 60s to mid 70s, though north winds have been a touch on the breezy side. The forecast is generally in good shape, but have bumped up winds/gusts and made adjustments to sky cover to match the latest trends. Otherwise, no changes were needed with this update. Previous discussion...Cold front has passed just SE of our area with surface high slowly nudging into the area for the rest of this forecast period. Upper trof axis and shortwave is still located across NY as evidence by the clouds and a few remaining sprinkles. As this trof axis moves through the area this morning through midday, we`ll see drier air with decreasing clouds for the remainder of the day. Temperatures will be in the 70s with drier dewpoints from a NNW which will be somewhat gusty as we mix this afternoon. High pressure building tonight for mainly clear skies, light winds, drier dewpoints and cooler with lows in the 40s/50s. Recent rainfall with these radiational conditions should allow for patchy fog in climate favored locations. On Tuesday...High pressure is cresting across the region with the upper level ridge axis approaching NY by evening. Mainly sunny skies with some high thin clouds moving across NY during the afternoon and possibly filtering into the Champlain Valley by sunset. Temperatures already moderating back to seasonable levels with highs in the U70s- L80s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 322 AM EDT Monday...The upper level ridge axis will depart to our east during this period while surface high pressure becomes centered to our southeast. This pattern will support moderate southerly winds with increasing humidity, and eventually a chance of showers as a weakening trough slides through our region Wednesday night. Have kept PoPs nil through midday Wednesday as there will be a plethora of dry air through at least the lowest 9000 feet of the atmosphere. So even as the air temperature at the surface rises through the 80s during the day, humidity will remain moderately low ahead the aforementioned trough. There is some uncertainty as to how strong the upper level forcing for lift will be, and without much surface convergence that will help determine how widespread showers will be. Generally looks like towards midnight showers will move across our region, with greater chances in the western Adirondacks and points west where a slight chance of thunderstorms is also indicated. While unlikely given poor lapse rates, this area will see low levels become relatively warm and moist to suggest a stronger cell updraft could grow tall enough to produce lightning. Any showers that move into the area Wednesday night could impact holiday festivities with brief downpours, especially in northern New York given the current forecast timing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 322 AM EDT Monday...The large scale weather pattern will feature ridges across the west coast of the US along with the southeastern US, which will steer the most active weather across the north central part of the country. As such, relatively quiet weather is expected for Vermont and northern New York. Especially on Thursday and Friday precipitation chances look very low. However, one system that will likely lift northeastward through the Great Lakes region this weekend that will trigger showers and thunderstorms. At this time coverage of thunderstorms looks on the isolated side but it looks like showers are hard to rule out anywhere on Saturday. There will be at least moderate instability, with seasonably warm and humid conditions are likely along with probable height falls as the storm system pulls to our north. It is questionable as to if there will be impactful weather with regards to either excessive rainfall or severe weather. The ensemble ranges for precipitable water during this period suggest substantial uncertainty as to how wet this period will be, as deterministic guidance currently is towards the extreme end. There`s generally good model consensus on greater instability on Saturday as compared to Sunday, although we keep shower and some slight thunderstorm chances for Sunday afternoon as cyclonic flow continues to support some precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...Primarily VFR with just an in/out of MVFR at KSLK which will end shortly as clearing skies will occur across the area. NW Winds 5 to 8 knots and pick up aft 14z to 10+ knots with a few gusts to 16 to 18 knots that subside after 22z Monday. Radiation cooling tonight will allow for SKC and Calm, light winds with some radiation fog likely due to recent rainfall so possible local IFR-LIFR at KMPV/KSLK at 06z. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW NEAR TERM...Hastings/SLW SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...SLW