Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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314 FXUS61 KBUF 291817 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 217 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorm will possible through this evening which could produce torrential downpours and gusty winds. A cold front will cross the region tonight, with additional chances for showers or a thunderstorms. The passage of the front will bring in less humid conditions and drier weather. High pressure builds in on Monday with dry weather through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Beneficial rains so far...with many locales reporting over 1.25 to 1.5 inches of rainfall through 06Z. The overall lack of instability has really kept the SVR potential at bay this afternoon. That said...it wouldn`t take much for storms to fire up given ample shear (0-6km 50 knts) across the region. So far the main concern has been the heavy rain that has fallen in many spots. Given the above mentioned rainfall totals....it wouldn`t take much for flash flooding to occur if any additional thunderstorms fire up. Otherwise...showers and thunderstorms will briefly dwindle in coverage from west to east beginning this evening. After that...the cold front will approach from the WNW late tonight and early Sunday morning. There is some indications we might see a round of showers with the front...but not all guidance is bullish on this idea. Right now...the most widespread showers coverage appears to be east of Lake Ontario. With the passage of the initial cold front it will become quite breezy Sunday, with increasingly more comfortable conditions due to the tumbling Td`s. Interestingly enough...our high temperatures are advertised to peak in the low to mid 70s by midday/early afternoon then slowly falling thereafter. This is unusual for this time of year... so this gives you a semblance of how strong the cold advection will be in the wake of the first cold front. MaxTs Sunday will generally be found in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Sunday night the core of the upper level trough and secondary cold front will slide south across our region. Coupled with upsloping and lake influences (the latter owing to rather cool 850 mb temps falling to around +5C to +6C)..the above should generate a fair amount of cloud cover along with some scattered showers...with the greatest pcpn potential lying east and southeast of Lake Ontario. With this in mind have increased both PoPs and cloud cover notably from blended guidance...which appears to be handling these rather poorly. Otherwise it will be a much more comfortable night for sleeping...with lows ranging from around 50 across the interior Southern Tier and North Country to the mid 50s across the lake plains. Sprawling Canadian high pressure and plentiful dry air will then slowly meander its way from the Upper Great Lakes to the mid- Atlantic coastline Monday and Tuesday...while low-amplitude upper level ridging builds across the region aloft. This will provide us with fine weather to start off July...with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday warming to the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday as a southerly return flow of warmer air develops around the backside of the departing ridge. In between...ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow Monday night`s lows to range from the mid-upper 40s across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Humidity levels will also remain comfortable throughout...with surface dewpoints only inching up into the 55-60 range by later Tuesday. Tuesday night the surface ridge will slip a little further offshore...while the next mid/upper level trough and surface low pivots across Manitoba and Ontario Provinces. With our region firmly embedded within the deepening/strengthening southerly flow in between these two systems...it will be a much warmer night than the preceding two...with readings generally ranging through the 60s. Meanwhile humidity levels will remain tolerable...as surface Td`s will linger in the 55-60 range. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned trough and surface low will continue to make its way eastward to Labrador...and in the process will ease a weak trailing cool front across our area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Out ahead of this boundary heat will build on Wednesday...with 850 mb temps surging into the upper teens...thereby supporting highs climbing back to the mid 80s to lower 90s in most areas. Humidity levels will also be on the increase...with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid-upper 60s and lending a decidedly muggy feel to the afternoon. As the cool front impinges upon this sultry airmass later Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday evening...it should help to set off at least some scattered convection...which could prove problematic for any holiday fireworks displays scheduled for Wednesday evening. Convection should then tend to diminish in coverage from northwest to southeast later Wednesday night and Thursday as the passing cool front slips off to our south and ushers in a slightly cooler and less humid airmass...though cannot rule out some spottier showers and storms lingering into Thursday afternoon near the NY/PA border. Otherwise slightly cooler highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected for Independence Day...though humidity levels will likely remain elevated. The weak cool front then looks to stall out not far to our south Thursday night and Friday...as a weak wave of low pressure develops and ripples eastward along the boundary. While the medium range guidance packages unsurprisingly exhibit differences on the timing and strength of this wave...a rough consensus would currently suggest a largely dry evening on July 4th...followed by a renewed potential for scattered showers and storms later Thursday night into Friday...with the latter greatest near the Pennsylvania border. This being said it`s pretty early...with changes to this overall scenario certainly possible over the coming days. Otherwise...it will likely remain warm and on the humid side through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front nearing the region will bring showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening which will likely produce periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. The showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east by late this evening and tonight...MVFR to IFR cigs will likely remain across area terminals. Outlook... Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm across the S. Tier. && .MARINE... It will be quite unsettled today...as a broad storm system centered north of the SOO will push several frontal boundaries across the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in widespread showers and possibly some gusty thunderstorms. Meanwhile...moderate to fresh southerlies will direct the greatest wave action into Canadian waters. The exception will be the far east end of Lake Ontario where waves will be significant enough to warrant a small craft advisory for sites north of Mexico Bay. Otherwise...expect fairly choppy conditions...especially well offshore. Winds will weaken somewhat tonight while veering to the southwest. This should allow the headline for eastern Lake Ontario to expire. Fresh to strong westerlies can then be expected in the wake of a cold front on Sunday. This will likely lead to a fresh round of headlines for at least the eastern half of Lake Ontario...while choppy conditions will be found elsewhere. Looking further ahead...high pressure drifting across the region Monday and Tuesday will offer fine conditions for recreational boating with generally light winds and negligible waves. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH NEAR TERM...AR/RSH SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...AR/RSH MARINE...AR/RSH