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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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555 FXUS62 KCHS 260542 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 142 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while a weak cold front approaches the area. This front will likely linger near the area through mid-week, followed by another front towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Satellite imagery reveals a thin boundary stretching from Orangeburg County down through Dorchester County...the focus for a few showers and thunderstorms that developed during the evening. Still 1500-2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE across the region although capped. But there could yet some isolated convection through the overnight that develops along that boundary...or any lingering boundary still out there. However, based on recent radar trends, the forecast will remain dry through the overnight for now. A touch of fog is also possible across the tri-county area due to the evening rainfall. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s inland to around 80 degrees at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad troughing aloft will be present over the East Coast of the U.S. Wednesday and persist through the work week. Similarly, at the surface a trough will be present along the southeast coastline on Wednesday. The coastal trough will slowly dissipate towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in at the surface from the east. Temperatures at 850 hPa will remain anomalously warm through the week, with hot and humid conditions expected each day. Heat index values are forecast to reach around 103-106F inland, with a few coastal locations possibly reaching 108F. At this juncture no Heat Advisory is planned, however conditions will be borderline through the end of the week. Each afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast, a typical summertime pattern with pulse convection. PWATs will remain slightly elevated, around 1.6-1.7 inches with CAPE values forecast to reach around 1500 J/kg in the afternoon. Therefore, any thunderstorm could become strong to marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts as the main hazard. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A similar summertime pattern will prevail through the weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds in aloft along with coastal troughing at the surface. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, with hot and humid conditions. Head index values will likely peak around 103-105F inland with some locations along the coastline reaching 108F. Head Advisories may be required. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: A brief bout of MVFR cloud cover is milling around the Charleston tri-county area, possibly from the isolated evening showers and thunderstorms. Latest forecast will have a brief period of MVFR conditions at KJZI. Otherwise, overall VFR conditions will prevail overnight through Wednesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Recent guidance trends suggest KSAV will have the higher probabilities for showers and storms, although with low confidence in timing/duration. Forecast will have VCSH at KSAV as well as KCHS during the afternoon as a start. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be possible at all terminals with afternoon showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: There are no concerns with a weak pressure gradient across local waters overnight. Southerly winds up to 10-15 kt early evening are expected to diminish to 5 to 10 kt overnight. Seas will range between 2-3 ft. Wednesday through Saturday: Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected through the period. Winds will gradually back each day and veer overnight, strongest along the coastline as the afternoon sea breeze/overnight land breeze develops. Seas should average 2 to 3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...