687
FXUS61 KCLE 300219
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1019 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late tonight. High
pressure will build behind the cold front Sunday through Monday.
A warm front will lift northward across region Tuesday, followed
by another cold front passing through Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
While a few thunderstorms were able to develop along the
convergent boundary across Southeast Lower Michigan, coverage
has been greatly limited. Mesoanalysis indicates that ML CAPE
remains high at around 2000 J/kg, some CIN has started to
develop across most of the area and low level lapse rates are
mostly below 6 C/km. In addition the 00Z DTX sounding shows a
capping inversion above 850mb but there may be a little better
low level moisture convergence still feeding into NW Ohio. Have
decreased pops for the first half of the night across the
southern areas while holding onto a pop in the north closer to
the trough axis. The chance of an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms does continue with any deep convection for a few
more hours this evening. As the evening progress a few models
are still suggesting that something could develop over Lake Erie
and move into NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. In addition, some
elevated instability is forecast to remain until the front
arrives and that may be the focus we need to kick off scattered
activity. The limiting factor for later tonight is that
shortwave energy will likely be east of the area by the time
front arrives so coverage should peak at scattered.

Previous discussion...The weather has calmed down after a
broken line of showers and a few severe thunderstorms moved
across the area. Currently, we have some subsidence over the
area behind the impulse that caused the earlier convection
today. As we head into this evening, model guidance has been
indicating the potential for some scattered convection to
redevelop between 6 pm and 10 pm later this evening as the cold
front starts to move into northwest Ohio.

The cold front is not well defined at this time over northern
Indiana and Lower Michigan. This surface boundary will become
slightly better defined later this evening as it starts to make
a push eastward. The atmosphere closer to NWOH has become
increasingly unstable with MLCAPE values approaching 2500 to
3000 j/KG and plenty of shear up to 45 knots. The one missing
component is a trigger or healthy boundary to get convection to
fire up. We will maintain a 30 to 40 percent POPs through the
late evening for additional scattered showers and convection to
try to develop near the advancing cold front.

A marginal to slight risk for isolated severe convection
may continue into the late evening with the better potential
being near NWOH. The atmosphere will slowly stabilize as we go
further into the overnight and any evening convection will
likely lose their energy as they move eastward across northern
Ohio. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard if
any stronger storm can get organized this evening. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain possible with any slow moving convection.
We have left the Flood Watch as is through the mid evening
because of the possibility of additional rainfall.

Sunday will be much cooler behind the passage of the cold front
tonight. We will have some clouds with breaks during the morning
but skies will gradually become partly cloudy to fair skies
later in the day. High temperatures will be below average for
the last day of June, in the lower to middle 70s. High pressure
will build over the Great Lakes region Sunday night with
clearer skies. Overnight temps Sunday night will be cool in the
lower and middle 50s away from the lakeshore. A few upper 40s
could be possible in the cooler prone valleys of NEOH and NWPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Regions will
bring a very nice weather day on Monday with sunshine and low
humidity. High temps will continue to be below average in the
lower to middle 70s for Monday afternoon. The high pressure
system will move eastward towards New England on Tuesday and a
southerly flow will return. The humidity and warmer temperatures
will also come back starting Tuesday. High temps will be back in
the lower to middle 80s areawide. NWOH and the Cleveland metro
area may be back in the upper 80s and feeling summerlike by
Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather is expected to start off the new
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next system to bring rainfall and unsettled weather will
arrive late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A weak cold front
will sag southward through the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon and slowly push through northern Ohio and NWPA
Wednesday night. This will be our next chance for showers and
storms. Model guidance is showing that this frontal boundary
will become parallel with the mid and upper level flow by
Thursday of next week. This frontal boundary will likely stall
out from west to east across Ohio and may waffle around Thursday
into Friday. We will have to keep an eye on any mid level
impulses tracking through the westerly flow that may help
develop rounds of convection near this stalled front late in the
week. There is a signal for that kind of setup in the model
guidance. Temperatures will be near or above average through the
end of next week and feeling summery during the July 4th
Holiday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
We have been experiencing a lengthy break in precipitation early
this evening as subsidence follows the activity from earlier
today. In the last hour we have finally seen a few thunderstorms
developing in southern lower Michigan along a boundary of
moderate instability. Have included a tempo for thunderstorms at
Toledo through about 01Z but may need to continue longer given
slow progress of this boundary. If a thunderstorm does impact
TOL it could result in IFR visibilities in heavy rain and gusty
winds to 40-50 knots.

Ceilings have generally improved to VFR and that is
expected to continue until settling back into the MVFR range
overnight as a cold front arrives in the 07-12Z window.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the front and included a mention of vicinity showers at most
terminals. Will need to wait for more confidence to try to time
rain anywhere but ERI may stand the best chance downwind of Lake
Erie. Winds will shift to westerly and eventually northwest
behind the front with gusts to around 22 knots picking up in the
morning and continuing through the afternoon. Ceilings will
improve from MVFR to VFR towards afternoon on Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move across Lake Erie late tonight. A wind
shift from the northwest will follow behind the frontal passage
late tonight into early Sunday morning. Northwest winds of 10
to 20 knots are expected Sunday and will make for choppy
conditions. Conditions may be near Small Craft criteria with
waves of 3-4 feet and moderate swim risk are possible for the
central and eastern lakeshore waterways. Winds will start to
decrease Sunday night as high pressure starts to build over the
Great Lakes. High pressure will remain in control of the weather
pattern Monday and Tuesday. Winds will become northeasterly by
Monday and winds veering around to the southeast on Tuesday.
The next week front is forecast to cross Lake Erie late
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...KEC/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Griffin