Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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240 FXUS64 KCRP 282316 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening Isolated showers will remain possible through the afternoon hours today across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. This is a result of a weak passing disturbance at the base of a mid level ridge in conjunction with plentiful available moisture (PWATs ~2.1"). Rain chances will diminish tonight as there will not be much forcing present and as moisture availability slightly drops. However, a few showers (PoPs <15%) will again be possible Saturday into Saturday night owing to the arrival of deeper moisture in association to a tropical wave over the western Caribbean progged to emerge into the Bay of Campeche by early Sunday morning. Regardless of the nearby shower activity, very similar conditions to today can be expected again tomorrow. Heat index values are forecast to soar to Advisory criteria (HI 110-114 degrees) over portions of the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains again Saturday afternoon. Although for now, have refrained from issuing another Advisory until the one for today clears out. Please, pay attention to later forecast packages that may include such changes and practice heat safety. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts through Tuesday, becoming moderate to major by mid week. - Moderate to high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding possible Sunday and Monday. Mid and upper level high pressure will persist across the region through next week, keeping most days dry. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday in response to a surge of moisture moving northwestward from the southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather across the western Caribbean Sea (AL94) and this area is forecast to move across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. NHC has a low (30%) chance of this disturbance developing into a Tropical Depression as it moves generally westward toward Mexico. Models keep this area well south of TX, but do show increasing moisture moving northwestward across S TX on Sunday leading to a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. The highest chances will be across the southern portions of the Coastal Bend Sunday morning then the Laredo area by Sunday afternoon as the surge of moisture shifts westward. Rain chances end from east to west as the upper level high pressure strengthens across the region. The moisture across S TX will fluctuate between 1.5 to 2.0 inches through the period resulting in a low chance (5-20%) of showers or thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze each day. A majority of S TX will remain rain free Monday through Friday. The rip current risk may become moderate to high along with some minor coastal flooding Sunday/Monday due to a long fetch of east to southeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. This is regardless of whether or not a tropical depression develops across the southern gulf. Models indicate swell periods increasing to around 10 seconds. Seas are forecast to increase to 7 feet despite weak to moderate winds. Confidence is low to medium (10-30%) at this time as to whether swell periods increase as much as models indicate. The main issue during the upcoming work week will be hazy conditions and heat. Saharan dust is expected to move across S TX beginning Sunday making for hazy conditions through the work week. The heat will become more of an issue by the latter half of the week when there is a moderate to major risk for heat related impacts. The first half of the week, heat indices are expected to range from 105- 109 with a few spotty brief areas reaching 110. By Thursday, afternoon heat indices around 110-113 are progged to be more widespread and last several hours. Heat Advisories may be needed by the latter part of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Breezy south to southeasterly winds will diminish overnight to less than 12 knots before increasing once again Saturday mid- morning. Isolated showers are ongoing this afternoon, but are expected to decrease tonight as we lose the daytime heating. Have left in a mention of VCSH for ALI through 03Z. VFR conditions are in place and will continue through most of the TAF period, with a brief TEMPO group for MVFR ceilings between 08Z and 14Z--mainly for ALI and VCT. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A moderate onshore flow will develop across the coastal waters tonight, before weakening slightly on Saturday. Isolated showers and storms are possible tomorrow through tomorrow night. Weak to moderate east to southeast winds are expected Sunday and Monday, becoming weaker and more southerly by Monday night into Tuesday. The remainder of the week, winds are expected to be weak to moderate and generally south. Due to a long fetch of east to southeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, seas are expected to build to 7 feet on Sunday and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Seas decrease through the day Monday. There is a low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Rain chances decrease the remainder of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 82 95 81 92 / 0 10 10 40 Victoria 79 94 78 95 / 10 10 0 20 Laredo 81 100 79 96 / 0 0 0 40 Alice 79 97 77 95 / 10 10 0 40 Rockport 84 94 83 93 / 10 10 10 30 Cotulla 81 102 80 99 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 81 96 79 93 / 0 10 10 40 Navy Corpus 84 91 83 90 / 10 10 10 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-241>244- 246-247-342>344. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...LS/77