407
FXUS63 KDLH 231141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quiet week is expected across the Northland with dry conditions
  for most through next weekend.

- Temperatures will start out near normal today then rise to 10
  to around 15 degrees above normal by mid-week, continuing
  above normal into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A quiet week is expected across the Northland with dry conditions
for most through next weekend. An upper level trough will dive
southeast today into the Northern Plains, continuing southeast
tonight. This feature will have limited moisture available and much
of the guidance, including most of the 80 ensemble members of the
ECMWF/GFS, have little precipitation with this trough for tonight
into Tuesday. We will carry low, 20-30%, POPs for western portions
of the Northland tonight with QPF less than 0.10". Tonight will
again be cool, especially for the Arrowhead and interior portions of
northwest Wisconsin where some patchy frost could again occur. If
cloud cover is more extensive than currently forecast, we may be a
bit low on our temperatures.

The upper trough will continue south on Tuesday eventually cutting
off and retrograding across the south-central CONUS. Upper ridging
will move east over the Northland mid-late week and with the upper
low to the south, creating a rex block which will aid in keeping the
Northland dry into Saturday with high temperatures rising 10 to
around 15F above normal by mid-week with these warmer temperatures
continuing into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy fog was occurring early this morning over portions of
northwest Wisconsin west at a few locales in central to
northeast Minnesota. This will lift by 14Z leaving behind VFR
conditions with some mid to high clouds passing through. An
upper level trough will arrive tonight and could cause some
light rain in spots, mainly from the Brainerd Lakes region on
north to the International border. VFR conditions are expected
with any light showers.

Winds are expected to be at or less than 15 knots with a few
higher gusts over central to northern Minnesota.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Winds today into Tuesday will be at or less than 15 knots with only
a few gusts a bit higher at times. The wind will become easterly
today as high pressure moves through. Winds will become southerly
tonight then they will become onshore Tuesday. Given the expected
winds, wave heights will be at or below 3 feet through Tuesday.
Looking ahead, not periods of stronger winds are expected through
late week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-
     018>021-026-035>038.
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde