Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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159 FXUS63 KDLH 191136 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure will bring cool and dry conditions today and tonight. - Southwest flow aloft will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast for Thursday into Thursday night. - A more significant system is on track for Friday into the weekend with more rounds of showers and storms expected along with chances for heavy rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Low pressure was located over western Lake Superior early this morning with a cold front trailing across northwestern Wisconsin, far southeastern Minnesota and into Iowa. Another weak trough/cold front was analyzed across northwestern Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the region for the most part, although a few light showers lingered across mainly Iron and Ashland counties. A few light showers will be possible across the Borderlands this morning as the weak cold front over northwestern Minnesota moves through, but any accumulations will be minimal. High pressure over the Northern Plains will drift eastward today and tonight bringing dry conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be cooler with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s resulting in much more comfortable conditions. Thursday will see the high shrink in size over Lake Superior as southwest flow brings chances for showers and a few thunderstorms over mainly the southern half of the CWA in association with a warm front. Models have backed off a bit on this first wave of precipitation Thursday into Thursday night with the high hanging on over western Lake Superior. The strength of the high could play a role in how far north the rain chances get with some chance that they remain to our south. Highs will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s, although readings in the middle 70s will be possible in portions of Koochiching, northern Itasca and northern St. Louis counties where rain is not expected to reach. The warm front will lift further north on Friday with better chances for showers and storms moving into the region. Gulf moisture will push northward behind the warm front, but questions remain as to how far north the warm front will reach or if it moves into our CWA at all and remains to our south. If it does move into the CWA, PWATs are once again expected to be near the top of climatology leading to a heavy rainfall threat across mainly northwest Wisconsin at this point. The SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of severe storms across mainly Pine and Burnett counties, mainly for large hail with storms north of the warm front. Forecast soundings don`t show much for instability, but there will be about 30 knots of shear, so some marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures look to remain cool across the region, especially if the warm front remains to the south, with easterly winds off Lake Superior. Low pressure will move across the region for Saturday and Sunday. Models disagree on the track of the low and this will be a factor on where the rain occurs and how much occurs. Northwest Wisconsin currently looks to see the bulk of the rainfall during this period which may exacerbate already high rivers and streams following Tuesday`s rainfall. Rain chances will linger into the new week as warmer temperatures look to move in to the region as well with highs in the 80s heading into the new week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 MVFR to IFR ceilings remain in place this morning in the wake of a cold front. Slow improvement to VFR is expected this morning, but skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers may linger over the next few hours and may briefly drop visibilities to MVFR. Winds will be northwesterly today with gusts to 15 to 20 mph before diminishing this evening and tonight. VFR conditions then prevail for tonight. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure will move in for today and tonight with variable winds at around 15 knots or less. Some fog may linger along the North Shore this morning, but is expected to quickly burn off after sunrise. Chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be seen for Thursday and Thursday night, but they may remain to the south of the lake. Winds will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots during this period. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018-019- 025-026. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>143. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH