878
FXUS63 KDLH 292107
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather tonight through Sunday night.

- More rain and thunderstorms are expected Monday through
  Tuesday. Locally heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms
  may be possible.

- Rain and thunder chances persist at times through the end of
  the week (including Independence Day) and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The radar is dotted with popcorn-style showers and even a little
enhancement over the Bayfield Peninsula which is likely due to
terrain/gravity wave forcing. This is all due to diurnal heating
creating modest instability and cyclonic flow aloft giving it a
synoptic boost. These showers are expected to persist until just
after sunset and diminish pretty quickly after sunset as dry air
filters in from the northwest.

Tonight, expect skies to clear out and winds to become
calm/light as high pressure approaches from the west. With dry
air moving in, fog is not expected to be a concern tonight.
There is the slightest chance that there could be some highly
localized frost in the coldest of the cold spots (think inland
in the Arrowhead). However, confidence is really low that
temperatures will cool that much. We`re getting really late in
the season, and even 10th percentile of models have temperatures
as low as 38 except for maybe a spot or two in the tip of the
Arrowhead that could approach 36. All-in-all, a chilly night
with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s, but unless you
live in the coldest of the cold spots, frost is not expected.

Ridging builds over the Dakotas on Sunday with a surface high
over the Northland. Expect plenty of sunshine, light winds, and
seasonably mild highs in the low 70s.

Southerly flow develops Sunday night, and from the west, a
warm front with broad warm air advection out ahead of it and
several weak upper-level waves will promote a broad area of
rain. PWATs creep up to ~1.50", or ~90th percentile of
climatology, so there will be some threat for heavy rainfall
amounts. By and large, totals from a quarter to one inch are
most likely across the region Monday through Tuesday, but some
locally higher amounts reaching 2" or so can`t be ruled out.
While flooding doesn`t looking likely at this time with a pretty
transient setup expected, with locally heavy rain falling over
well saturated soil, some localized minor flooding can`t be
ruled out.

There will also be potential for some thunderstorms
Monday and Tuesday, most likely Monday afternoon/evening and
perhaps again Tuesday afternoon/evening. Initial instability
parameters don`t look too exciting as we look into severe
potential. MUCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear
to 30 knots or so. Storms should also be elevated, so threats
will likely be limited to some marginally severe hail and
perhaps damaging winds on Monday. On Tuesday, there`s potential
that the cold front may be passing through. Of course, timing is
not perfect several days out, but a similar marginal severe
threat may be possible Tuesday as well.

Rain moves out Tuesday night, and Wednesday may be a largely
quiet weather day with flow becoming more westerly. There may be
some wraparound showers and perhaps storms, but severe weather
isn`t expected.

On Thursday (Independence Day), models are in decent agreement
that another low pressure system may pass through and bring more
rain and thunderstorms (at this point looking like a 50 to 60
percent chance). Details are still muddy that far out, but folks
with holiday plans should keep a close eye on the forecast.
Additional rain is possible Friday and into next weekend, but
chances drop from about 50 percent on Friday to about 30 percent
on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Breezy northwest winds will persist through the afternoon, then
decrease around sunset with high pressure moving in from the
west. Scattered showers will be possible until around sunset as
well, but conditions are expected to remain VFR generally. A
brief MVFR visibility can`t be ruled out. A scattered to
overcast layer of clouds between 2k and 4k ft will keep ceilings
bouncing between VFR and MVFR this afternoon. Then, clouds will
scatter out this evening, leading to VFR conditions everywhere.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will continue to decrease early this evening. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect until 01Z (8 PM CST) for most
nearshore zones. Wind gusts to 25 knots remain possible until
then, along with some wave heights to 4 feet along the South
Shore. After that, winds become light from the northwest
tonight, switching to southwest Sunday, then more variable
Sunday night with quiet weather. East to southeast winds
strengthen in speed on Monday with rain and thunderstorm chances
increasing by Monday evening (50-70% chance).

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     141>143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ144>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS