Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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886 ACUS01 KWNS 140601 SWODY1 SPC AC 140600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NE/KS...CENTRAL/EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN MD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail and wind gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible from mid afternoon through the evening along the Front Range to the central Great Plains. Scattered strong storms with sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible across the Northeast States during the afternoon to early evening. ...CO/KS/NE into the northern High Plains/northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level low over the Southwest is expected to eject northeastward as a shortwave trough later today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by late afternoon into the evening. In advance of this shortwave, an outflow-reinforced front may move slowly northward through the day. Low-level easterly flow will maintain a corridor of relatively rich low-level moisture along and north of the front, with strong heating/mixing expected south of the front, and also in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon across parts of CO/NM, as the shortwave trough approaches the region. Moderate buoyancy and marginally favorable deep-layer shear will support a hail threat with initial discrete storm development, along with some potential for a brief tornado or two. A tendency toward more of a cluster mode is expected with time, as storm coverage increases. As this occurs, isolated to widely scattered gusts of 60-80 mph will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-storm heating/mixing occurs. A loosely organized MCS could eventually evolve near/north of the surface boundary, which would result in some severe-wind potential spreading eastward across a larger portion of the central Plains later tonight. Farther north, moderate diurnal destabilization will be possible near/east of a weak surface low across the northern High Plains, with modest instability extending westward across parts of the northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late afternoon into the evening, with sufficient deep-layer shear to support a few stronger storms capable of producing isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ...PA/OH into the Mid Atlantic and New England... A mid/upper-level trough will move across the Mid Atlantic and New England later today into tonight. Weak to moderate buoyancy will develop along/ahead of a cold front, with scattered thunderstorm development expected from PA into New England, and more isolated development possible farther south into parts of the central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Moderate deep-layer shear will support some storm organization, and few stronger clusters and/or marginal supercells will be possible, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind and hail. The Slight Risk has been expanded into parts of southern ME and also across a larger portion of PA, based on latest guidance regarding greater storm coverage within a somewhat favorable environment. Rather strong deep-layer shear will extend westward into parts of Ohio, but storm coverage remains more uncertain into that area. ..Dean/Thornton.. 06/14/2024 $$