Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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608 FXUS63 KEAX 271125 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...Updated 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances late tonight through Friday morning. Widespread 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible. - Slight risk of severe storms and moderate to heavy rainfall from thunderstorms Friday evening into early Saturday morning. - Looking well ahead, slight risk of excessive heat and humidity for Fourth of July. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Through 06Z, surface ridge axis has built south-southeast along the lower Missouri Valley. Much cooler and dryer air has settled across the area, with a rather pleasant summer morning on the horizon. Morning lows will dip into the upper 60s to around 70 F. WV imagery reveals the mid-level ridge spread across the southwestern CONUS quite well, with an onshore mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest. In response, we`ll see a flattening of the ridge centered over the Rockies, spanning from the lower Mississippi to the desert southwest through the day. Also visible in WV currently are a series of potential short wave disturbances traversing the primary flow. Short to mid range solutions eject one of these short waves across the central plains later this afternoon into the evening toward the region. At the surface, the trailing Pacific Front will emerge across the Rockies through the evening, supplying modest mid-level moisture which will help kick off scattered convection late in the evening, likely after 8 to 9 PM CDT. Precip will increase in coverage after midnight and through Friday morning as the boundary layer is modified by more sufficient WAA from the Gulf and the surface boundary lifts toward the region. Widespread rainfall totals will range from around a half inch to an inch through Friday morning, with locally higher amounts in storms possible. Friday, we`ll potentially see a decrease in rainfall through the afternoon and early evening, with chances greatest along and north of US-36. Into the evening, the developing surface low over the western high plains will push east with the influence of a compact H500 short wave entering the Dakotas. With a weak surface low centering over the lower Missouri Valley near NE/IA through the evening, redevelopment of thunderstorms is expected along this boundary, likely developing into a loosely organized complex working with 3000 to 4000 J/Kg of MUCAPE across northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through Midnight. Early MCS maintenance parameters such as 0-3km shear, hint at organization and forward propagation south and southeast through early Saturday morning. This will bring another notable shot a precipitation to the region. Widespread 0.50 to 1.50 additional inches cannot be ruled out and given the convective nature, locally higher amounts can be expected. The synoptic pattern remains rather messy, but surface ridging should follow through Saturday, building in from the northwest. This will bring a return to more seasonable temps and rather quiet conditions for mid to late Saturday into Sunday. Although low end PoPs remain for the Ozarks and southward as an east-west boundary hangs up and maintains a focus for scattered precip chances through the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the pattern remains active, with near daily chances for summertime convection and periods of heat and humidity. It wouldn`t be the week of July Fourth without some scattered storm chances and highs in the 90s and heat index values around 100 to 105 F. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Clear skies to start this morning and afternoon. Expecting some cumulus development through the afternoon, and then eventually VFR ceilings come in ahead of the next system. Expecting mostly VFR conditions heading through the early evening. Later, showers and storms over Kansas start to move toward the KC metro terminals. Thinking showers may start to reach the terminals as early as 06z, but will be scattered. Coverage increases through Friday morning, and some thunder may be possible. At this time, confidence is low in how storms will evolve in track, so will maintain showers with VCTS toward the end of the TAF period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Krull