337
FXUS63 KEAX 290533
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms expected overnight, with damaging
  winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards.

- Temperatures cool temporarily going into the weekend.

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Early day storms and showers have mostly moved out of the region
at this point, leaving behind a cooler, moist airmass. Cloud
cover has persisted over much of eastern KS and MO throughout
the day, with some pockets evident on satellite. With these
conditions in place, the risk of severe weather tonight has
become more uncertain. This is in addition to the presence of a
strong capping inversion over the region. If cloudier
conditions continue, then the lack of warming to this airmass
may not destabilize it enough to create energetic storm modes.
However. with some clearing evident within the cloud shield,
there is a non-zero chance of severe development going into the
overnight hours.

With a cold frontal boundary forcing from a surface low and its
coincident upper level trough, a line of precipitation is set
to develop across NW MO and NE KS starting around the evening.
Models such as the NAM Nest and HRRR keep a line of storms
tracking over north-central MO, with the HREF keeping them
organized throughout the night. The likeliest period of impact
will begin at 7pm, with storms tracking southeast into midnight
tonight. Taking a look at forecast soundings before the line of
precipitation moves through, primary threats will be damaging
wind and large hail, with a layer of dry air aloft and a lower
freezing level. Lapse rates are forecast to remain lower around
6.5 degC/km, and forecasted shear values of 40-50 kts could
maintain stronger updrafts in any severe storms that form.
Irregardless of the severe threat, this line of storms will be
efficient precip producers (PWAT values ~2 inches across the
line), and will bring a threat of heavy rainfall to much of
central MO overnight. This will serve to exacerbate hydrologic
headlines in the region. By tomorrow morning, conditions should
become mostly clear as the complex exits towards the southeast
in full.

With the passage of this storm system, temperatures are expected
to fall in the upcoming days with the establishment of a surface
high bringing northerly winds and slightly cooler air to the
area. Afterwards, though, the propagation of this surface high
towards the east alongside its upper level ridge over the
southern CONUS will provide persistent southerly winds. With
these winds, temperatures are expected to rise once more to the
low 90s by early next week. Sporadic shortwave troughs embedded
within the upper level ridge`s flow will bring more
opportunities for scattered precipitation moving into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will slowly shift to the north with occasional gust to 12
knots during the day. There is a chance for some low ceilings from
09Z-12Z however, left out of the TAF due to low confidence.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier