Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231108
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
608 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

Key Message:

- Widespread rainfall expected late tonight into much of Tuesday.
  Rain totals of 2-3" will be possible in some areas. No severe
  weather is expected.

Quiet start to the morning, with most locations in the 40s. Cloud
cover will steadily increase today with the approach of a lead
shortwave trough embedded within an amplifying trough over the
central CONUS. Moisture will begin to increase today, but with an
initial dry low level profile, will take some time for any notable
rainfall to reach the surface - likely not to occur before sunset
this evening.

Large scale ascent shifts into the forecast area overnight into much
of Tuesday as the closed low nudges to the east, resulting in
widespread rainfall across the area. Rain totals this evening into
Wednesday morning are expected to average 1.5-3". While some
response is expected with area creeks and streams area wide, only
localized minor flooding on our smaller river basins is anticipated.
Instability is projected to be quite minimal, likewise no strong
thunderstorms are expected through the period.

With the nature of the closed low, models slightly diverge on its
respective position by Wednesday, but the general theme suggests
periodic showers remaining possible as the low moves across the
region. Depending on the eventual speed/exit of the low, rainfall
should come to an end on Thursday. Temperatures will quickly swap
the below normal readings with highs in the 80s Friday through at
least next Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

VFR conditions expected with gradually decreasing cigs during the
day/evening. Rain will persistently impact terminal space after
midnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Blair


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