Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 180352
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1052 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 320 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

Our eyes are watching a mesoscale low pressure cyclone slowly
making its way up from the SE KS/SW MO. Weak steering currents
aloft are slowly pushing it toward the north and east. A warm
front extends from Clinton, MO towards the east along the MO
River. Isentropic ascent across this boundary is sustaining
showers throughout central MO. The LLJ is starting to take shape
across the SE side of this low which further advects warmer air,
moistures, and instability into the eastern portions of the CWA.
Precipitation is expected to wrap around the low stretching into
far Northern MO with showers initiating along a cold pool on the
north side of the precipitation. As the low strengthens and
tightens up, precipitation is drawn further south toward the KC
metro and St. Joseph which keeps isolated showers around through
the overnight. Upper level steering currents reorient out of the
west and strengthen this evening. A small velocity maximum in this
current kicks the mesoscale low out of the area early Tuesday
morning. Precipitation dissipates giving the area a break from the
rain for a few hours.

Southerly flow behind the mesoscale low drags warm air and
instability back into the region. An area of instability and surface
convergence stretches into the eastern portions of our CWA Tuesday
afternoon encouraging the development of a line of showers and
thunderstorms. These storms are anticipated to extend from around
far NE MO through Kirksville, Sedalia, continuing to Nevada, MO.
These storms move toward the NE ushered by a warm front that enters
the CWA from the south Tuesday evening. This warm front also guides
in an area of showers and thunderstorms up US69/I-49 through the KC
metro. Storms are expected to move through the KC metro late Tuesday
evening.

Meanwhile, an upper level high situated in the eastern CONUS
strengthens and sets up an omega block across the southeast and
eastern US. In contrast, a large cut off low parks across the
western US. As a result, smaller scale shortwaves ejected from the
western low are turned toward the north and revolve around the high
to the east. Unfortunately for us, that means waves of rainy weather
look to continue for the next several days. The past few days have
really cut into the precipitation deficit we were seeing so far this
month. MCI added another 1.18 inches to their running total bringing
it to 2.8 inches. Other areas picked up around 3 inches of rain
yesterday. Hydrological hazards/impacts remain the primary concerns
over the next several days. Flash flood guidance is gradually
decreasing as soil moisture increases; however, guidance still
remains greater than 1.5 inches over three hours which is fairly
substantial. Runoff into small creeks/streams and subsequently
larger rivers have caused levels to rise in some places. These
levels are expected to ebb and flow with rain and drainage into
larger streams.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

The top five consecutive number of days with precipitation
greater than or equal to 0.01 inches observed for Kansas City are
as follows:

Rank    Run Length      Start and End

1.      10 Days         05 Oct 1914 - 14 Oct 1914
        10 Days         27 May 1903 - 05 Jun 1903
3.       9 Days         25 Apr 2017 - 03 May 2017
4.*      8 Days         09 Jul 1992 - 16 Jul 1992
         8 Days         05 Apr 1951 - 12 Apr 1951

*There are seven total stretches tied for 4th place with 8 Days.

With 0.05 inches today and measurable precipitation forecast
Sunday through Friday, 0.01 or more each day, that would place us
at seven consecutive days, coming up a few days short of the 10
day record, but placing the stretch in a 20 way tie for 11th
place. With that said, if the extended forecast of measurable
precipitation on Saturday is realized, we could end up in an eight
way tie for 4th place.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2021

Some pesky isolated showers continue to percolate around the TAF
sites tonight. Expect them to continue to dissipate as we head
toward morning. Currently a mix of IFR and LIFR ceilings out
there. Expect ceilings to continue to remain low and decrease
some overnight. Additionally reduced visibilities down to 2 miles
will be possible at time. Improvement is expected by late morning
into early afternoon, but additional showers are expected to
develop Tuesday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...HB
Climate...Kurtz


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