Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 137 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2019

Primary forecast focus is on minor rain chances Sunday.

Key Messages...

1. Temperatures will continue to steadily warm up through the
weekend into next week. Highs will be in the 40s and lower 50s
across the region through the weekend. Expect highs to approach the
upper 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

2. A quick moving front, Sunday, will bring low chances for rain to
the region, primarily central Missouri. Rain amounts will be a trace
to a tenth of an inch for most.

Discussion...

Overall, fairly seasonable and quiet weather pattern through the
weekend into mid-next week. Seasonable temperatures will be the main
story, especially with the minor warm up through next week, with
highs in the mid to upper 50s for most locations.

This weekend, a weak open short wave trough will cross the upper
Midwest/western Great Lakes, bringing a weak frontal boundary that
will be a focus for light rain across parts of the area on Sunday.
The best location for rain will likely be central Missouri, with
minor accumulations of a trace to a tenth of an inch.

Ridging, midweek, will bring the warmest temperatures on Wednesday,
with afternoon highs approaching 60 across the Ozarks into portions
of eastern Kansas, western and central Missouri.

Late week, Thursday into Friday, long range guidance is in general
agreement, with a weak short wave lifting off the southern Plains
and ushering in warm air advection and isentropic ascent
sufficient enough for rain chances spread across the region
Thursday morning through Friday morning. Rain chances will carry
into the weekend as a closed 500mb trough wraps up and traverses
the region; long range guidance seems in relative agreement with
this scenario too.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 516 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
south winds will increase slightly this afternoon, remaining out
of the south through the period. Late in the period, some patchy
fog may develop across portions of northern Missouri, not
impacting TAF sites, but could impact GA operations in north
central Missouri.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Kurtz


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