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000
FXUS63 KEAX 241756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 AM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog this morning in northeastern KS and northwestern
  MO. But otherwise quiet weather conditions are expected today
  with near normal temperatures.

- Generally dry conditions this week with near to above normal
  temperatures.

A combination of moisture pooling along a slowly advancing cold
front, cool advection into that moisture behind the front, and
overall light winds is leading to areas of fog in northeastern KS
and northwestern MO. This area will slowly move east during the
predawn hours as the front progresses eastward. HREF and SREF
visibility probabilities show improving probabilities after
sunrise as the boundary layer mixes. But this will likely result
in some lower cloud cover that tracks east this morning with the
cold front.

Water vapor imagery shows a strong/ deep cutoff upper low spinning
over the eastern Dakotas. At the surface, a cold front extends from
eastern KS and northwestern MO northward into southwestern MN where
it occludes into the surface low over southeastern ND. The closed
upper low will slowly track eastward which will help push the cold
front through the area today. Weak forcing associated with the front
may lead to isolated showers in our eastern zones this morning. But
overall, dry weather is expected today with temperatures climbing
into the upper 70s to near 80s degrees. The cutoff upper low will
meander across MN Monday into Tuesday. This will keep the weather
across eastern KS and into central MO dry with slightly above normal
temperatures in the lower 80s. Tuesday, the closed low drifts
southward in the eastern IA and western IL area as shortwave ridging
builds into the central and northern Plans. That ridge gets
compressed by a strong longwave trough over the northwestern CONUS
and western Canada. Stronger cyclonic flow around the base of the
Midwest closed low, along with some potential vorticity advection,
will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern half of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. eastern KS
and western MO will stay dry. Later in the week, shortwave ridging
will spread over the middle of the country and that will result in
temperatures climbing into the middle to potentially upper 80s,
which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023

VFR conditions under clear skies are expected through the period with
northwesterly winds around 10 knots this afternoon becoming very
light overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...BMW