031
FXUS63 KFGF 170411
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a round showers Monday morning in southeastern North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota, stronger thunderstorms will
  develop over the area Monday evening and continue into the
  overnight. Primary threats will be heavy rainfall bringing
  flash flooding potential and hail up to golf ball sized, but
  some winds up to 60 mph will be possible.

- Thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday, with heavy rainfall
  and flash flooding possible, along with large hail and
  damaging winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Conditions remain quiet across the area this evening, with SCT
mid level clouds through the Sheyenne River Valley towards
northwestern Minnesota. Light radar returns in the central Red
River Valley, but nothing is reaching the ground according to
observations. Winds have calmed since sunset, and we should see
light and variable overnight.

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wind advisory will be allowed to expire at 7pm as we continue to
see conditions improve in the Devils Lake Basin. Isolated spots
may still see winds up to 30mph at times through sunset. An area
of showers continue to work through portions of the southern Red
River Valley into west central MN this evening. A flood watch
was issued for Monday afternoon into early Wednesday. Excessive
rainfall is expected in parts of Lakes country that may lead to
flash flooding concerns Monday afternoon through early
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper low lifting into Manitoba is helping push out surface
trough/frontal boundary out our eastern CWA border, with most of
the winds already shifted to the west although some upper 60/low
70s dew points are lingering. The towering cumulus still has not
completely cleared our far eastern counties, but should be out
of the woods shortly for surface based convection in our east.
Could see a few sprinkles in our far south later this evening
from SD that CAMs are not catching onto, but impacts will be
very minor.

Later tonight there will be a fairly vigorous shortwave moving
from SD/Neb into WI. The model runs have been very inconsistent
with the precipitation set off by this shortwave. Previous model
runs, CAMs and large scale models alike, had heavy QPF over our
southern counties, but now are more over southern MN. We do get
some of the precipitation in our far south by tomorrow morning,
but not as much as previous forecasts. This sets up more
favorable conditions for late Monday into Monday night, with a
warm front lifting north into our CWA and a shortwave coming
from the High Plains into southeastern ND. CAPE will be elevated
at 1500-2000 J/kg and some 50 kts of deep layer bulk shear, so
hail up to golf balls and even some gusts up to 60 mph are part
of the impacts. Of greater importance will be heavy rain as with
the boundary lining up with the upper flow, storms will be
reforming on top of each other. The main shortwave will continue
into North Dakota but the boundary will not move too much until
late in the day on Tuesday. Thus, the chance for thunderstorms
and heavy rainfall will continue throughout the day on Tuesday.
Risk of flash flooding is high.

After a bit of a break on Wednesday with high pressure, the
southwesterly flow aloft continues, with signs in the ensembles
of another boundary lifting into the area on Friday. The trough
moves through Saturday before heading out into Great Lakes for
Sunday. Details, especially for severe impacts and heavy
rainfall, are uncertain at this point, but confidence in the
active pattern continuing is high.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and tomorrow morning.
There may be some brief morning showers that may reach KFAR by 14z.
However, Thunderstorms aren`t expected until after 02z moving from
the south to the north possibly affecting all the TAF sites by 06z
Tuesday. Winds are expected to become gusty after the evening.
There`s a little uncertainty with the timing of these storms
especially if the associated front stalls between KFAR and KGFK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for MNZ024-028>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MM