Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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726 FXUS63 KFGF 011734 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area, with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along and south of Interstate 94. - A system is expected to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As expected, the main area of precipitation on radar has been shifting into northwest Minnesota (seeing a 45 knot low level jet focused into this area). NDAWN and several spotter reports indicate some locations under these echoes have received over 1 inch of rain so far. The office here in Grand Forks has had a few decent showers roll overhead and we have picked up about a tenth of an inch. Looking out to the west (western North Dakota) where additional convection is possible near the surface front, it has become cloudy again. This is going to limit the instability, making it tougher to get much organized activity going again this afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Most of the echoes on the regional radar this morning were centered over the northern Red River Valley. Per the latest SPC mesoanalysis page, this is driven by a piece of 700mb shortwave energy and the low level jet (40 knots). Throughout the rest of the day, the 700mb wave will lift into Canada, but the low level jet will linger (and increase through the afternoon, but it will remain east of the Red River Valley). Recent CAMs indicate the most activity today transitioning from the northern Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota, and mainly along the Canadian border. Any shower/storm activity elsewhere looks to fairly isolated. More activity may move into eastern North Dakota this evening, as storms that fire closer to the surface front over western North Dakota move eastward. UPDATE Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 There is one cluster of showers/thunderstorms in northeast ND (higher coverage), with isolated showers/thunderstorms near our far eastern counties (Beltrami/Lake of the Woods). This matches trends from CAMs and earlier HREF mean. Some adjustments to refine coverage are necessary, the general forecast remains on track this morning with a likely delay in new development for some locations (namely south) until midday or early afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...Synopsis... Large scale flow remains progressive across the Northern Plains, with a series of mid level shortwave troughs. This larger scale pattern shows strong consensus in ensembles, with variances in specific tracks and strength of some of the waves and surface features. The strongest/most organized mid level waves are today and another on Thursday (Independence Day Holiday), with less organized/more diffuse forcing between these waves keeping shower/thunderstorm chances. There is a larger spread in the evolution of the large scale pattern late next weekend and early next week, with a subset of clusters favoring more amplified ridging versus a larger percentage of ensembles favoring NW flow over our region. Overall, temperatures are favored to trend back towards seasonal averages through the week, with a much larger spread in highs by next week (chance for above normal temperatures). ...Today... Initial showers that developed early this morning have been associated with an axis of 700MB WAA within SW flow ahead of the main mid level trough (still located over the Northern Rockies). A cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms (a few stronger) are shown by CAMs to arrive in our northwest later this morning, but the severe threat should be delayed due to narrower limited CAPE profiles locally. Strong low level moisture advection is underway and additional isolated-scattered shower/thunderstorms may develop within less organized forcing through the day before the main wave approaches and a strengthening LLJ organizes activity into larger areas of showers and thunderstorms this evening (evolution well represented by all HREF members). Widespread rain totals exceeding 0.5" should be expected (particularly this evening/overnight) with a strong signal in HREF PMM for one or more swaths of 1-2" rainfall (strongest signal north). Hydrological this wouldn`t be enough for excessive runoff/flash flooding in our area outside of urban areas with poor drainage, though additional/eventual rises on rivers would be possible. As surface low pressure deepens southeast BL flow may increase and there is a signal in some guidance for near advisory winds across the southern RRV, though mixing heights appear limited due to a strong elevated inversion/warm nose and persistent stratus. This stratus stable layer also plays a role in limiting potential impacts from deeper convection that may develop this afternoon and evening. Parcel traces remain very elevated and while elevated CAPE does increase as the LLJ builds east (along with strong deep layer shear) the potential for surface based parcels is not reflected and DCAPE is minimal (well under 500 J/KG). This raises the possibility that most activity will tend to be heavier rain with a few stronger cores supporting large hail to around 1". Wet downbursts can`t be ruled out though considering the shear profiles, especially if there are any linear segments that become orthogonal to higher shear vectors. This may be less prevalent due to the stable low levels, limiting confidence/coverage for our area in a wind threat. ...Independence Day Rain and Severe Threat... The system Thursday continues to show good agreement in timing and broader track at 500/700MB. However, the specific strength/evolution and exact track all shift surface features and create higher spread in potential rain totals and any severe potential. There is still a low chance for severe storms (5% probs on CSU GEFS based machine learning), but little confidence in those types of details at this range. Despite the variances, there is still a strong signal for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening period which even if not severe could impact Independence Day festivities. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Low clouds (MVFR to IFR) are creeping slowly to the east, and will likely hold through most of the night. This will be the main aviation impact outside of any thunderstorm activity. Most of the current convective activity has shifted from KGFK into northwest Minnesota. The visibility briefly dropped under 2SM as the heavier rate rains moved through KGFK, otherwise visibilities have been P6SM. This afternoon activity may clip KTVF yet, but should mainly stay closer to the Canadian border. CAMs still show additional thunderstorm development back along the surface front over western North Dakota this afternoon, then track it into this FA during the evening. If this activity does develop, it could bring another period of about 2 hours of showers or thunderstorms tracking through. After this passes, clouds should slowly decrease, and it may clear or scatter out. As far as winds, they have been all over the place this morning, varying from light to gusting to 38 knots. It should stay on the gusty side through the afternoon into evening, with some decrease showing up late tonight into Tuesday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...Godon