Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
970 FXUS65 KFGZ 301000 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 300 AM MST Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for the newt few days, before decreasing again from about mid-week onward. Expect light winds and seasonable temperatures early in the week, before a strong warming trend develops for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A strong outflow, emanating from a decayed thunderstorm complex south of Tucson earlier tonight, is moving northward to the Phoenix area this morning. We are already seeing some light rain shower development in the mid-levels ahead of this outflow, with more development likely by 4-5AM, as the boundary layer outflow enters southern Yavapai County. This is all set up from the southerly flow over eastern Arizona, due to a ridge to our east and the continued presence of a trough over the Pacific NW. We expect further development this afternoon, especially from the I-17 corridor north and northeast, as higher moisture values stream into the area. By tonight, the overall pattern remains the same, but MCS development shifts northward, setting up a potential for nocturnal activity in our CWA, as active outflows push north and west overnight. Due to the cloud cover and rain-cooled air that potentially may develop tonight and early Monday, it could actually be a down day for Monday afternoon, leaving Tuesday as the next active period. By Wednesday, the Pacific NW trough finally dislodges and move east. However, instead of the sub-tropical high reestablishing itself, it will retreat eastward and allow an even stronger Pacific high to take its place. This pattern may displace moisture southward as early as Wednesday, perhaps totally drying our CWA by Thursday and Friday. This could end up being a very hot pattern for the holiday weekend. But, there is some disagreement in high placement after Day 5 or so, we will have to wait and see. && .AVIATION...Sunday 30/06Z through Monday 01/06Z...VFR conditions are expected away from any TSRA/SHRA. Storm coverage will push westward on Sunday and become more widespread. Thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds. Otherwise, daytime SW winds 10-15kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 01/06Z through Wednesday 03/06Z...VFR conditions are expected away from any TSRA/SHRA. Storms will continue overnight Sunday night and into the day Monday. SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through this period, thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions. Storm activity decreases Monday evening through Tuesday morning and increases again on Tuesday. Away from thunderstorms or outflows, daytime S-SW winds 5-15kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Scattered showers and storms are expected across much of northern Arizona each day, some activity may continue into the overnight. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around thunderstorms. Near-normal to below normal temperatures, along with southwest wind 10-25 mph. Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through Wednesday, with drier conditions returning for Thursday. Warming temperatures, along with west winds 5-10 mph through Wednesday, becoming northwest 10-15 mph on Thursday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...MAS/Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff