447
FXUS64 KFWD 291047
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made to the previous forecast. The Excessive
Heat Warning was expanded to account for yesterday`s observed peak
heat index and today`s expected values.

We will likely get a small reprieve from the oppressive heat index
values tomorrow with most of the area staying below 106. Although
the Heat Advisory will likely have to be extended in time for a
few locations, some areas across North Texas will likely be
without a Heat Advisory tomorrow.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday/

As high pressure remains the dominant feature, another hot day is
expected across our region. All of North and Central Texas is now
under a Heat Advisory or an Excessive Heat Warning, with the
hottest and most dangerous conditions expected within the
Excessive Heat Warning.

Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the mid 90s to around
102 with heat index values topping out closer to 112. Caution
should be taken if you are planning on spending time outdoors
today. Those who are most at risk will be the heat-sensitive
groups as well as those who will be actively exposed to the sun
for a long duration of time. Remember to stay hydrated, seek a
cool place to take a break from the heat as well as wear light-
colored clothing!

Tonight, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s across
the region. The urban heat island effect will keep temperatures in
the 80s within the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

A stalled weak front across Oklahoma will likely lead to a few
showers and storms well north of our region, with a few boundaries
likely pushing closer to the Red River late in the afternoon.
Although convection will likely be limited by the subsident air
aloft, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out mainly
across far northeast TX. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be
1-2 degrees cooler compared to today with heat index values mostly
below 108 degrees. The Excessive Heat Warning is unlikely to
continue into Sunday, however, the Heat Advisory may be extended
for parts of our region for tomorrow afternoon.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/
/Sunday Night Through Next Week/

Widespread triple digit temperatures will continue throughout the
week, with the hottest temperatures expected on Tuesday. Heat
index values will be between 103-110 degrees each day, but >110
degrees should be less common than we experienced this week. Heat
headlines will continue throughout the week for most (if not all)
areas. There are some early indications that the ridge responsible
for our hot and quiet weather will weaken and shift further west
late next week. As a result, rain chances will return late in the
week and potentially continue into next weekend. While most of
the rain would occur Friday onward, it`s worth monitoring the
forecast if you have any outdoor plans for the July 4th holiday,
as timing is certainly subject to change over the next several
days.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Patchy MVFR is ongoing at this time across KACT and eastern parts
of the D10 airspace. This will likely continue for a few more
hours through around 14-15Z. This afternoon, cumulus clouds are
ongoing again expected around FL060. Once the MVFR stratus
dissipates, no aviation impacts are expected.

Winds will remain southerly throughout the day between 13-16
knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  82  99  81 100 /   0   5   5   5   5
Waco                99  78  97  78  99 /   0   5   0   0   0
Paris               96  79  95  76  95 /   0   5  20   5  10
Denton             100  80 100  78 100 /   0   5   5   5   5
McKinney            98  81  98  79  99 /   0   5   5   5   5
Dallas              99  82  99  81 100 /   0   5   5   5   5
Terrell             96  79  97  78  97 /   0   5   5   5   5
Corsicana           98  79  98  79 100 /   0   5   5   5   5
Temple              99  77  98  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       99  78 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159-161-162.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ115-129-130-
141>143-156>158-160-174-175.

&&

$$