144
FXUS64 KHGX 292338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

In case you haven`t gone outside in the past week...or
month...it`s hot. Temperatures as of 2pm CDT are mainly running in
the mid 90s with heat indices well into the 100s and solidly into
Heat Advisory territory ( 108F). With that in mind, today`s
Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of Southeast Texas
through 7pm CDT this evening. There will be another Heat Advisory
in effect for Sunday for the same areas, but more on that in the
next paragraph. We already have some spotty showers developing
near the I-10 corridor. Some of the 12Z CAMs have additional
development occuring later this afternoon across portions of the
Piney Woods. Any convection that develops will dissipate shortly
after sunset. Not much relief in store from the warmer
temperatures overnight as we`ll only drop into the upper 70s/low
80s tonight. This would be about ~5F above normal for low
temperatures.

Sunday will live up to its name with plentiful (and in my opinion
too much) sunshine as the mid-level high intensifies leading to
500mb heights climbing to 596 dam. This will further increase the
subsidence aloft leading to a lower potential for the typical
afternoon showers along the seabreeze. With high pressure in
closer proximity, we`ll also have lighter winds in place as well.
So, most locations (except those along the coast), will not much
of a "cooling" breeze through the afternoon. So...long story
short...it`s going to be a bit hotter. Temperatures will be about
~1F hotter than what we experience today (Saturday), but on the
plus side it`ll be a teensy bit drier so heat index values will be
a bit lower (but not by much). Heat index values will mainly be
in the 107-111F range, so another Heat Advisory will go into
effect from 12pm-7pm CDT Sunday. This`ll be Day #7 in a row with a
Heat Advisory in effect for at least some portion of Southeast
Texas, so our heat streak will make officially make it (at least)
one week!

We are also on the lookout for a plume of Saharan dust (light
concentrations) moving in Sunday afternoon, which could create a
bit more vivid colors in Sunday`s sunset. The dust plume is
expected to linger over eastern Texas into early next week.

With heat index values near or above Heat Advisory criteria (
108F) through Sunday, please continue to keep heat safety at the
forefront of any plans that you make (especially if outdoors).
Know the locations of the nearest cooling centers, know the signs
of heat related illnesses (heat stroke/heat exhaustion), drink
plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the
heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part
of the day, wear loose/light-colored clothing with sunscreen, and
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don`t
forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the
palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe,
stay cool, stay hydrated.

Batiste/Bird

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Hot, humid and generally dry weather conditions continue through
the long term period as upper level ridge remains anchored over
our region. No major changes have been made for the Monday through
next Saturday time frame. With the surface high centered over the
north- central Gulf, warm and more humid Gulf flow will continue
to surge moisture inland, resulting in isolated, diurnally-driven
showers/storms each day. A broad area of low pressure is forecast
to move over the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche this weekend;
however, no significant impacts are anticipated for our region
other than elevated seas/swells through Monday. In addition to hot
and muggy weather, the work-week will start off with hazy skies
due to a plume of Saharan dust arriving into the region.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are continuing to develop
and move north across and out of the CWA at this time. Did include
the mention of VCSH in for CLL with this latest package, but amend-
ments could be forthcoming for UTS/CXO shortly based on the latest
radar trends. Otherwise, S/SE winds will be decreasing through the
overnight hours with spotty development of brief patchy fog or low
clouds (MVFR) by sunrise (at our usual spots for the most part).

With only widely scattered/isolated chances for precipitation like-
ly again for tomorrow, will not add any mention of VCSH/VCTS in at
this time. Else, VFR will prevail with SE winds 10kts or less. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will persist as the
surface high remains anchored over the north-central Gulf. These
conditions will continue this weekend and will prevail through
most of the upcoming week. A long period swell is expected tonight
into Monday in response to an area of low pressure moving towards
the Bay of Campeche. Seas from 4 to 6 ft can be expected through
at least Monday morning. A brief period of offshore winds will be
possible on Tuesday, but overall, light to moderate onshore winds
and seas generally from 3 to 5 ft can be expected through most of
the work week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  78  97  78  99 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  81  97  80  99 /  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  84  90  82  93 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438-439.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338-438-
     439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...41
MARINE...JM