623
FXUS64 KHUN 291418
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
918 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 918 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Despite current morning cloud cover, an incredibly hot and humid
day is forecast to unfold. Eroding of morning cloud cover can
already be seen in our western counties with surface heating
working to progress clearing from west to east. The mostly clear
conditions will allow temps to rapidly rise into the mid to high
90s. Coupled with dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices will be
well above 100 with a heat advisory in effect for our western
counties from 12 PM to 8 PM. For anyone partaking in outdoor
activities (including those not in the heat advisory) extra
precautions will need to be taken to account for the sun and heat
including staying hydrated and taking breaks in shade and AC.

Diurnal convection will be able to take advantage of peak
afternoon heating and surface moisture to fire up a few pop up
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances (30-50%)
will be east of I-65 along the western periphery of high pressure.
Any storms that ignite will pose a threat for frequent lightning.
Fortunately these diurnally driven storms will loose fuel after
sunset and rain chances will drop to below 10% for the remainder
of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

We`ll be in store for another very warm night across the
Tennessee Valley, with lows in the mid 70s in most locations.
Sunday also looks to be another hot/humid day across the area,
with highs in the low to mid 90s once again. The combination of
mid 70s dewpoints and these high temperatures will once again push
heat index values close to Advisory criteria. However, cloud cover
will be more of a factor on Sunday as a weak front pushes into the
region and expect mostly cloud conditions and medium/high chances
of showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the day in
accordance with the front moving in and peak heating. Depending on
how much the atmosphere can destabilize, a couple strong storms
can`t be ruled out. A slightly "cooler" and drier air mass will
arrive early next week in wake of the front for Monday and a
noticeably more comfortable night will be in store with lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The heat and humidity will return mid to late week, including the
4th of July holiday as a strong mid/upper ridge will build into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, extending southward into the
Tennessee Valley. This will keep stalled boundaries (and their
focus for convection) well south along the Gulf Coast and allow a
hot/humid air mass to settle into the region. This will push
daytime highs into the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
easily into the 100-105 degree range by Tuesday and potentially
above 105 degrees (Advisory criteria) for Wednesday and Thursday
(4th of July). Additional heat products may be needed later next
week. Low/medium chances (20-40%) for diurnally driven convection
will be present each day, but most locations will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at each
terminal through the period. The one exception may be early this
morning at KHSV where some BKN stratus decks have developed and
may linger through 13-14z. Scattered Cu will develop this
afternoon, with low chances for a TSRA/SHRA at both terminals
during the mid/late afternoon. However, confidence was too low to
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ALZ001>008-016.

TN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TNZ076-096.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP