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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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238 FXUS63 KICT 282026 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 326 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storm potential this evening into tonight. - More heat southern Kansas Saturday. - Strong to severe storm potential Saturday evening far southern Kansas. - Heat returns Monday and Tuesday. - Off-and-on active thunderstorm pattern Tuesday night through late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible late this afternoon and evening over south-central Kansas in vicinity of a surface trough/pseudo dryline approaching from the west, and also across central and east-central Kansas in vicinity of a weak cold front approaching from the north. Convergence is not all that great along these features, and upper support is fairly meager, which casts doubt on thunderstorm development. However, if a storm or two can develop, an ample combination of instability, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear will support localized large hail and damaging downburst winds, along with intense rainfall rates owing to above average precipitable waters. LATER THIS EVENING--OVERNIGHT...A separate area of thunderstorms is possible later this evening and overnight, mainly across central and north-central Kansas after 11 PM, as High Plains activity develops and grows upscale within favorable upslope low-level flow underneath the southern fringe of better upper forcing. If this activity can reach central KS, the primary threat would likely be 50-60 mph winds, small hail, and brief intense rainfall rates. SATURDAY--SATURDAY EVENING...A few lingering showers/thunderstorms are possible Saturday morning, as the frontal zone oozes slowly south across the area. Otherwise, attention then turns to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances over far southern Kansas near the OK border late Saturday afternoon-evening in vicinity of the stalling frontal zone. Despite minimal upper support, strong frontal convergence should be enough to initiate storms. The combination of strong instability and marginal deep layer shear should be enough for a handful of strong to severe storms. Given the weaker shear, thinking the hail threat will be marginal, with the primary threats being locally damaging downburst winds and intense rainfall rates. The other main story for Saturday is the heat over southern Kansas. Thinking widespread 90s are likely. When coupled with dewpoints in the 70s, afternoon through early evening heat indices will top 105 degrees for many areas over mainly far southern Kansas, where a heat advisory has been hoisted. SATURDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY...Increasing warm advection and moisture transport could support an uptick in showers/thunderstorms later Saturday night and persisting into at least Sunday morning. Thinking chances will probably be highest generally west of I-135. Widespread strong to severe storms appears unlikely. Increased clouds and a post-frontal airmass should keep Sunday temperatures seasonably cool to even below average. MONDAY--FRIDAY...The heat and humidity build back north across the region for Monday and Tuesday, with heat headlines once again possible, as afternoon through early evening heat indices climb into the 100-108 degree range. Additionally, model consensus progresses a front south into the region by late Tuesday, and stalls it across the region through late week. This, along with a few seasonably strong/deep upper troughs, will support periodic thunderstorm chances across the region late Tuesday through the end of the week. A seasonable combination of instability and deep layer shear should support strong to severe storm chances, along with locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Breezy southwest winds will affect southern Kansas this afternoon. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will push slowly southward across central Kansas this afternoon and reach southern Kansas later tonight. A few storms could develop along this the front but looks more isolated so won`t mention at this point. Winds will switch to the north then northeast during the late night and morning hours on Saturday. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ091>093- 096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...CDJ