887
FXUS63 KIWX 142218
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
618 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Warm and dry conditions will persist through next week.

-Drought conditions will likely continue to expand and worsen.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnants of Francine continue to get sheared out over the Gulf
States today into early next week. Meanwhile, an upper ridge across
the Northeast continues to grip the area with dry weather. The ridge
shifts eastward in the first portion of next week and provides upper
divergence to left over vorticity offshore of the Mid Atlantic
States allowing a chance for tropical cyclone formation. Both the
GFS and the ECMWF deepen the system and carry it inland, GFS being
the earlier model to do it. There`s some question how far westward
it can come, with the GFS also carrying its energy farther westward
than the ECMWF. With the antecedent dry air around, am still
skeptical of getting any rain across the area. The ECMWF finally
brings in a better low level theta-e airmass by Friday and this
weekend, but even then, instability is still lacking, which also
likely cuts into rainfall chances. As such, am still most confident
in holding onto null PoPs through the forecast period that even the
NBM gives me.

There are signs that the mid teens Celsius 850 mb temperatures dip a
couple degrees lower into the low teens for Tuesday through Thursday
meaning the mid to upper 80 high temperatures will become more low
to mid 80s highs during the that timeframe before creeping warmer
again for the later week. Am still noting the 25 percent MinRH
values from Sunday through Tuesday, but it still looks like the
weaker, less than 20 mph average winds, and the still relatively
moist fuels (greater than 10 percent) keep us out of red flag
criteria during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Dry and VFR conditions will persist with high pressure in place
through the forecast period and beyond.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Andersen