377
FXUS64 KJAN 310906
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Today and tonight...Showers and thunderstorms are working there way
eastward across area, mainly south of I-20 this morning as a
weakening MCV moves eastward. The severe threat is minimal as the
storms will continue to move east and weaken over the next few
hours. Another strong short wave will move across the area this
afternoon through the evening hours. This will kick off yet
another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Lapse rates will be marginal at 5.0-5.5 c/km, but with
possible some afternoon heating and MU capes of around 1000-2000
j/kg, a few storms could become strong to severe, especially over
the western portions of the area. A marginal/slight risk is
already in affect for the area. The showers/storms will continue
through tonight into Saturday. Flash flooding may begin to become
a problem especially overnight into Saturday. Highs today will
climb into eh mid/upper 80s, with overnight lows mostly in the
mid/upper 60s./15/

Saturday through next Friday...

The threat for severe weather and the potential for flash flooding
will continue through most of the period. Global guidance show the
sfc low tracking northeast towards the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile,
on the southern peripheral of this sfc low, a trailing cold front
will stall over the northwest portions of our forecast area through
Saturday evening. As the cold front continues to stall over
northwest, model consensus shows a QLCS developing over southeast
AR, northeast LA and parts of western MS around early Saturday
morning. As we head into late Saturday morning, the QLCS will start
to track southeast across central MS. Both the Euro and the GFS show
the QLCS continuing to push further south of our forecast area by
Saturday afternoon/evening. The combination of daytime heating of
our warm moist airmass, subtle shortwaves and the stalled cold front
will help maintain a threat for isolated severe storms across
central MS. The highlighted Marginal Risk has been extended further
south to include areas along and south of the I-59 corridor. Primary
risk with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail up to
quarter size. A few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

In addition to the severe potential, PWAT values up to 2.0 inches
will support some storms producing locally heavy downpours at times
through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts between 2-4 inches of rain
will be possible across our forecast area with locally higher
amounts possible. No changes have been made to the flash flood
graphic and a Limited Risk for heavy rainfall has been maintained
for our CWA. Expect updates to the severe/flash flooding graphics as
we continue to monitor trends and forecast confidence starts to
increase. Microbursts producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail,
and heavy rain will be a possibility through the middle of next
week. Storm chances will continue through Wednesday as temperatures
and moisture increase as low-level flow increase across the
southeast US bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and
storms across our CWA. Another cold front will approach the area
heading into Thursday. This will result in the potential for heavy
rain and strong to isolated severe storms each day. Future guidance
shows rain chances coming to an end on Friday as the cold front
tracks further south out of our CWA and into the Gulf Coast giving
us a small break from the rain. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Most TAF sites are VFR tonight, but showers/storms are moving
across the southwestern portions of the area. As the storms move
eastward, they may bring MVFR conditions to JAN/HBG over the next
few hours. Expect these storms to continue to diminish through the
night, but another round of storms are likely this afternoon. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  69  83  69 /  50  40  90  40
Meridian      90  68  83  67 /  20  40  90  60
Vicksburg     86  68  83  70 /  70  50  90  40
Hattiesburg   90  71  85  69 /  20  40  90  50
Natchez       85  68  83  69 /  80  50  90  30
Greenville    84  70  83  70 /  70  70  80  40
Greenwood     87  69  83  69 /  50  60  90  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/CR/