719
FXUS62 KJAX 300600
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Convection is on the downward slide this evening and has nearly
dissipated across NE FL where most activity had been concentrated
this afternoon along the sea breeze. A few lingering t`storms are
likely to continue across the Suwannee Valley and interior areas
of SE GA where the Gulf Sea breeze and Atlantic sea breeze can
still take advantage of the unconsumed instability in those areas.
Anticipate convection to fade completely before midnight tonight.
Debris cloudiness from convection will dissolve, leaving mostly
clear skies tonight. Lows will fall to the mid 70s inland and
upper 70s at the coast.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms will continue through the
afternoon and into the evening, gradually decreasing in coverage
after dark. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the mid 70s
inland, upper 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A pretty typical summertime convective pattern will continue
through the rest of the weekend, as plentiful moisture will remain
in place with a weak layer flow. This will allow the sea breeze to
penetrate modestly inland, and therefore expect the highest
chances for showers and t`storms to be west of I-95. With the
soupy airmass in place (even for Florida standards), we will be
flirting with heat advisory criteria in some areas despite temps
mainly in the low to mid 90s, as dew points reach the mid to upper
70s.

A cold front approaches from the north Sunday Night and into
Monday before stalling and becoming typically diffuse over central
GA. High mean layer moisture will remain in place, and with the
southeasterly sea breeze also getting an uptick ahead of the
boundary. Therefore, numerous diurnal convection will be expected
once again, especially into southeast GA closer to the weak
boundary, as well as inland west of about HWY 301 with the
slightly stronger onshore flow. Similar temps and humidity
compared to Sunday as well should once again borderline advisory
levels for many.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Chances for showers and t`storms overall look a bit lower for the
long term period. High pressure aloft near the northern Gulf Coast
shifts east/northeastward through the end of the week, which will
introduce some subtle subsidence as well as trying to mix in
slightly drier air aloft. Aforementioned high pressure and rising
heights at the upper levels will also start and increasing trend
in high temps mid to late week, with slightly above average
temperatures looking likely for Independence Day and into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A few showers are over inland areas near JAX, VQQ and SSI at 06z,
but should fade over the next 1-3 hours. Some patchy fog or a
brief stratus layer possible around 09z-13z inland areas early
this morning, but appears to be low or very low chance of impact
to the terminals. Once again, a moist airmass will lead to diurnal
showers and storms today, mostly starting up around 18z and
continuing into the evening hours. Highest chances generally
around GNV in the aftn. For now, holding onto PROB30 groups for
convection with MVFR and IFR shown with gusty winds. Should see
convection slowly fade late evening and overnight. Sfc winds will
be light and will allow the east coast sea breeze to develop at
SSI, CRG, and SGJ this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will remain southerly through Monday the rest of the
weekend with high pressure centered well NE of the waters, with
winds near coast becoming southeasterly each afternoon with sea
breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft during this period. A weak cold front
will move down over the waters and dissipate Tuesday into
Wednesday, with a more east to southeast wind expected then.
Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the waters each day.

Rip Currents: Another low-end moderate risk of rip currents
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  76  94  74 /  70  60  70  50
SSI  91  78  91  78 /  60  50  60  50
JAX  94  75  94  75 /  70  50  60  40
SGJ  91  76  93  77 /  70  40  50  30
GNV  92  73  92  74 /  70  60  70  20
OCF  91  74  93  75 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$