Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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437 FXUS64 KMAF 290642 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 142 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Well, not much to write home about for the short term with a weak, elongated ridge in place from northern Mexico through the southeast US. With the ridge being more displaced and weaker than yesterday (coincident with a weaker low-level thermal ridge), high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most, albeit still quite hot. A similar trend follows for Sunday as well, with triple digit heat limited to the Rio Grande/Pecos river valleys and the western Low Rolling Plains. Precipitation chances will be rinse and repeat from the last few days, with an isolated storm or two possible across the Davis Mountains and far western high terrain both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Other than the heat and slim chance for storms, the only noteworthy feature in the short term will be the LLJ providing breezy to gusty conditions across the region both early this morning and again late this evening/overnight. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The stagnant weather pattern of this weekend continues into the first half of the new week. Mid-level ridging holds firm over much of the southern CONUS but becomes a bit more centered closer to the ArkLaTex by midweek. This keeps temperatures well into the 90s and 100s each afternoon with little chance of rain for most. The exception is the higher elevations where diurnal convection can be expected most afternoons. There is a possible light at the end of the proverbial tunnel to end the week. Forecast ensembles weaken the mid-level ridge begins over the southern Great Plains as it becomes centered over the Four Corners region. This pattern may allow disturbances and troughs to dive into the southern Great Plains on the east side of the ridge. This change would allow for slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of thunderstorms across much of the region during the afternoon and evening. Let`s hope this pattern change holds to end the doldrums of Summer we have been stuck in. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions prevail throughout the period. A stout LLJ has all terminals gusting near 25 kts throughout the overnight hours. The LLJ weakens by 09-12z for CNM/HOB/PEQ and while winds may temporarily come down at MAF/FST/INK near 12z, midday winds will largely remain gusty. The LLJ redevelops again tomorrow evening, setting up yet another gusty overnight period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 103 75 99 73 / 10 0 10 0 Dryden 98 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 99 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 94 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 Hobbs 101 73 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 97 64 93 63 / 10 10 20 0 Midland Intl Airport 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 103 78 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...16