952
ACUS11 KWNS 021925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021924
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Areas affected...Far Northeast KS...Southern IA...Northern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 021924Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern
Missouri and southern Iowa this afternoon. Environmental conditions
support severe thunderstorms capable of large hail from 1 to 1.75"
and gusts to 70 mph. A few tornadoes are possible as well.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown an increasingly
agitated cumulus field over far northwest MO and adjacent
south-central IA. This cumulus is building within an area of
moderate low-level convergence just to the south of a warm front
extending eastward from the far southern IA/NE border across
southern IA and then southeastward to the IA/MO/IL border
intersection vicinity. Temperatures immediately south of this front
are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s. These
warm and moist low-level conditions are supporting strong buoyancy,
with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg.
Continued heating and low-level moisture advection could help push
MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg over the next hour or two. Flat character to
much of the cumulus suggest some convective inhibition likely
remains across a majority of the region. However, recent
mesoanalysis and modified forecast soundings suggest that only
minimal convective inhibition remains and some of the more recent
cumulus development appears to have a sharper character. All of
these factors indicate that convective initiation will likely occur
soon.

Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is already place, evidenced by
the 18Z TOP sounding sampling 40 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. This
matches the recent mesoanalysis, which is estimating 40 to 50 kt.
This is sufficient for organized convection, including a few
supercells if a discrete mode can be maintained. Low-level flow will
likely be veered, but some strengthening in the 850 to 700 mb layer
could still help elongate hodographs, supporting some tornado
potential. This potential will be augmented by increased vorticity
near the warm front. Some large hail from 1 to 1.75" is possible and
water-loaded downbursts are possible as well. After an initially
cellular mode, upscale growth into an organized convective line
appears likely, with damaging gusts as the primary severe risk.
Given this severe potential, a watch will likely be needed across
portions of the area.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   39959207 39589461 40409549 41169494 41849344 42259127
            40739119 39959207