118
ACUS11 KWNS 262243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262243
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky across West Virginia into parts of
Maryland and Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

Valid 262243Z - 270045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across southern portions of WW
467, though weaker instability farther east casts some uncertainty
on the potential need for a downstream watch across northern and
western Virginia/Maryland.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows generally
disorganized/sub-severe convection ongoing across eastern Kentucky
and southern/eastern West Virginia at this time, east of the
advancing cold front.  Local risk for gusty/damaging winds remains,
with the strongest cells, but overall severe potential should
continue to gradually diminish this evening.

Farther east, a less unstable airmass is indicated, per RAP-based
objective analysis.  As such, storm intensity is not expected to
increase substantially.  Additionally, modest flow aloft up to
roughly 3 to 4 KM AGL also suggests limited potential for
severe-caliber gusts.  However, with that said, temperatures well
into the 90s across the area are indicative of a deeply mixed
boundary layer, suggestive that some evaporative cooling potential
exists -- enhancing the risk for strong outflow winds locally.  At
this time, WW issuance appears unlikely to be needed, though if the
aforementioned outflow potential could result in organized cold pool
growth/expansion, greater wind risk in that scenario could require
reconsideration of the need for a WW.

..Goss.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37278409 38198180 39287951 39677856 39537632 37897713
            37577911 36968216 37278409