Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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906 FXUS66 KMFR 272118 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 218 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .DISCUSSION...Weak ridging has started to build into the region today, contributing to the slow erosion of this morning`s marine stratus along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin. The pattern of westerly flow aloft looks to produce a stable air mass over our area during the next week, with near or very slightly above normal temperatures from tomorrow/Friday into early next week. The slow passage of another weaker trough is expected to bring high clouds across the area Friday night into early Saturday, and also increase the coverage and duration of coastal low clouds Saturday night through Monday night, especially north of Cape Blanco. This same system may destabilize the atmosphere enoughto produce some isolated thunderstorms east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon. Only a few model solutions indicate this, and the expected pattern is one that has been known to produce convection before, but give nthe dry conditions, confidence is too low to include thunder at this time. There is a likelihood of further warming from Tuesday through the long holiday weekend (Day 6 through 10), and a little more than 50% of ECMWF ensemble members indicate strong warming by Thursday. Meantime, the mean and majority solution of GEFS members is not quite as bullish. So, the most likely scenarios are hot or very hot. The warmer scenario for late in the week would also include both an episode of northeast low level winds with downslope warming for Brookings, and then up to a few days of stronger westerly winds on the east side. -DW/BPN && .AVIATION 27/18Z TAFS...Marine moisture is sustaining low ceilings along the Oregon coast, with MVFR ceilings and local IFR. Local visibility reductions are possible in drizzle. Low clouds will clear through this morning with conditions becoming VFR along the coast. Inland, mid level clouds and local MVFR ceilings are present from the Cascades west this morning. These ceilings will continue clearing and turn to VFR today. East of the Cascades and across northern California, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. -Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 215 PM Thursday, June 27, 2024...A return of gusty northerly winds is present through tomorrow, with steep seas affecting areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds and seas will peak late tomorrow afternoon and evening, with steep seas continuing south of Cape Blanco and an area of very steep hazardous seas possible between 5 and 20 nm from shore south of Brookings. Winds and seas lower Saturday and Sunday. Then gusty northerly winds and elevated seas are expected early next week. -Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for PZZ356-376. && $$