Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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509 FXUS62 KMHX 030530 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 130 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow. The high then shifts offshore Thursday through this weekend with oppressive heat and humidity returning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 10 PM Tue...No changes needed with late eve update. Prev disc... As of 7 PM Tue...No changes needed with pm update. Still expecting pleasantly coolish overnight lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast (low 70s beaches) as winds become light overnight. Prev disc... As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure remains in control through the day, gradually shifting eastward as mid- level ridge builds overhead. Temperatures will rebound from cool morning lows with plenty of sunshine, and highs in the low to mid 80s are expected. Fair conditions continue tonight with high pressure continuing over the area. A light easterly breeze will persist, but it will become nearly calm well inland. Partly cloudy conditions are expected as moisture streams in off the Atlantic, and this along with the light breeze will limit overnight cooling somewhat, with early morning lows expected in the low 60s inland, and the mid to upper 60s closer to the coast. Some patchy fog is possible over the coastal plain, but this might end up forming closer to the I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Tues...Only small changes to the weather pattern Wednesday with high pressure shifting slightly to the east and resulting in a more E/ESE wind across Eastern NC. Low level thicknesses will be similar, so expect highs again in the mid to upper 80s with relatively low humidity levels. A slight increase in moisture around 850 mb will lead to slightly more clouds, and there even could be a few brief sprinkles. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM Tue... KEY MESSAGES: - Oppressive heat and humidity returns late week and this weekend Our most impactful weather likely occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again. Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface, high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore through the end of the week allowing SSW and deeper moisture to return to the area. Temps will grad warm late week into the weekend allowing for oppressive heat and humidity to return, Fri into the weekend. High temps will soar into the mid to upper 90s inland, low 90s for the beaches, combined with dewpoints climbing back up into the 70s. This could to heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg. A cold front will approach the area this weekend and early next week, but will likely stall or dissipate west of the area. This boundary will likely do little, except to possibly aid in shower/tstm development. Will continue a mostly dry forecast through Thu, with climo mostly diurnally driven seabreeze pops this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thu/... As of 130 AM Wed...VFR conditions prevail across area terminals today as high pressure centered off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula extends into the Carolinas. Main concern tonight remains a weak signal for patchy low stratus and ground fog, although highest probabilities are north and west of the region closer to the VA border. Still, cannot rule out a spotty early morning fog threat for PGV where winds will most likely and a fog-happy OAJ based on recent observational trends. Another quiet flying day in store after sunrise with easterly winds gradually veering southeasterly as sea breeze makes its way inland, although winds will remain at around 5 kt through the period. For OBX, winds stay closer to a steady 10 kt. LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 230 PM Tue... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Sct diurnal shower/tstm chances return this weekend. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/... As of 3 PM Tues...Nice boating conditions are anticipated through tomorrow with high pressure ridging across the waters. Winds will be NE 10-20 kts through this evening and then will subside to E at 5-15 kts tonight. Light E to ESE flow continues tomorrow. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft. LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/... As of 230 PM Tue...Mostly benign boating conditions are forecast for the period. Winds continue to remain light (5-15 kts) and veer to the SE/S Thurs as ridging becomes centered to the E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and Thurs down to 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL/SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...CQD/SGK