180
AWUS01 KWNH 040421
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-041020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0551
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...North-Central to Eastern KS...West-Central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040420Z - 041020Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms is
expected heading through the overnight hours. There is an
expectation for areas of cell-training, which coupled with high
rainfall rates will likely result in areas of flash flooding. This
will especially be the case for areas of eastern KS and
west-central MO heading into the predawn hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with dual-pol radar is showing an expanding axis of rather
well-organized convection across areas north-central KS as an
upstream shortwave trough continues to eject east out into the
broader central Plains region. Overall, cloud tops have been
tending to cool over the last hour, and the area VWP data is
showing a gradual increase in a southwesterly low-level jet across
areas of central and eastern KS. Coinciding with this subsequent
increase in warm air advection/isentropic ascent has been the
development over the last hour of additional broken bands of
convection farther off to the east from near Concordia southward
to near Salina and well off to the east including areas adjacent
to Topeka.

The low-level jet should increase further overnight and reach as
high as 40 to 50 kts which will be a result of the approaching
shortwave energy/DPVA aloft and nocturnal enhancement. Much of the
convection over north-central and eastern KS right now is elevated
in nature given proximity of a warm front well to the south, but
the latest 00Z HREF guidance favors a rather strong nose of
elevated moisture and instability transport aiming up across
central and eastern KS, and eventually west-central MO heading
through the remainder of the night.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg across
southern KS currently, and this instability coupled with the
low-level jet and deeper layer ascent will yield a further
expansion of convection off to the east over the next several
hours. The convection is likely to attain some orientation that
will be nearly parallel to the deeper layer steering flow,
especially over eastern KS and west-central MO later tonight, and
this will favor strong concerns for cell-training.

PWs over eastern KS and western MO are quite high with values of
1.75 to 2 inches, and this combined with the level of instability
and moisture transport should yield rainfall rates capable of
reaching 2+ inches/hour with the stronger storms. Given the
cell-training concerns, it will be possible for some areas to see
as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain by dawn across especially eastern
KS and west-central MO.

Areas of flash flooding are likely to materialize, and multiple
metropolitan areas including Topeka and Kansas City may see a
notable concern for urban flash flooding later in the night.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40149703 39839459 39139326 38289304 37939387
            38109592 38659800 38979895 39459905 39839853