Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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542 FXUS63 KMPX 241707 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1207 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will warm to near 80 by Wednesday and last through the weekend with continued dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A line of light showers is making its way across Minnesota early this morning. The majority of the radar returns are not reaching the ground, but some stronger showers are ongoing across southern Minnesota. Rainfall totals will only be a few hundredths of an inch through the next couple of hours. This shower activity is expected to diminish through mid morning, making for another day of great late September weather with highs in the low 70s. Temperatures are on track to warm through the remainder of the week as ridging builds in across the central CONUS. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80 with overnight lows in the 50s are expected through the beginning of next week. Rain chances will be hard to come by through the period as we find ourselves cut off from any meaningful moisture source. While the weather across the Upper Midwest will be quiet at the surface, things aloft and the reason we are lacking any moisture are a little more interesting. Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine is anticipated to move into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen over the next day or two. The trough responsible for our showers this morning will continue to sag southward, eventually becoming a cutoff low over the Ozarks. As a result, we find ourselves warm and dry, with no way for Gulf moisture to be advected northward. This feature will remain parked over this region as the tropical system continues to move north towards the Florida Panhandle. The cutoff low and the PTC will interact and `Fujiwara` around each other, with the cutoff low absorbing the PTC and sending it north into the Ohio River Valley and eventually west back toward the Midwest by this weekend. As the system slowly begins to lift to the north, the far northern edge of the precip shield may brush portions of Illinois and Wisconsin. Depending on how far west things progress, there are some low PoPs across far southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday into Sunday. The pattern finally progresses by early next week with the ridge flattening and a trough moving across the Canadian Prairies. Residual moisture from the aforementioned system will hang around the Upper Midwest, leading to continued low chances for PoPs (10-20%) to start the month of October. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. North-south swath of upper-level clouds over far eastern MN into western WI will slowly drift east and dissipate through the rest of the day, keeping ceilings mainly over RNH but possibly reaching EAU. Otherwise, only passing high clouds expected through this afternoon with SKC conditions expected tonight under very stable high pressure. Winds will become W to NW behind a passing dry cold front, then become light/variable overnight through much of tomorrow. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts becoming E. SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...JPC