739
FXUS63 KMQT 201856
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
256 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Widespread rain chances still seem likely for the first half of
 weekend with latest guidance trending southward with the axis
 of heaviest accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Generally tranquil weather will persist through tonight. Surface
ridging over Lake Superior is allowing for light onshore flow along
the shoreline keeping temperatures in the 50s along the immediate
shore to 60s inland. Where sun has been prevalent over the eastern
U.P., temperatures have climbed into the 70s.  A weak disturbance
aloft lifting northeast in the southwesterly flow aloft is producing
widespread mid-level clouds over the western half of the area with
even a few sprinkles. Much drier air in the sub cloud layer,
however, is causing many of the returns being seen on radar to
evaporate before hitting the ground. Not many changes are expected
through the night. Best chance for enough sprinkles or light showers
to wet the ground will be over the far west and along the WI border
through the early evening.  Temperatures will be seasonable tonight
around 50 and into the lower 50s with clouds keeping temperatures
from falling too much despite light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

After a brief quiet period for Thursday, active weather returns to
finish out the week. A warm front will be lifting through the Upper
MIssissippi Valley into Friday as another shortwave ejects out of
the Rockies. Warm advection precipitation should move into the
western UP by mid-morning while the front stalls out somewhere
across central or northern WI. Showers continue on and off throughout
the day, most likely over the southwest and south-central UP, closer
in proximity to the boundary. With a pretty decent cap developing in
soundings, strong convection is not expected, but a few rumbles of
thunder will not be ruled out. As the main upper trough moves out of
the Plains later Friday, a surface low will deepen and lift
northeastward along the boundary toward Upper Michigan by early
Saturday. The moisture increase will be significant Friday night
into Saturday with PWATs approaching 2 inches, so Saturday will
likely be a washout for most with moderate to heavy rain. However,
will note a trend among some of the guidance to keep the boundary
(and heaviest rainfall) more to our south, across northern or
central WI. Still, by the time this first round of rain winds down
Saturday evening, much of the area will likely have picked up
rainfall totals in excess of an inch (70-90% chance among ensemble
guidance) with the Euro coming in even higher. Given recent heavy
rains across portions of the U.P. this week ponding of water will
and increase in stream flows will be the primary threats.

As the low continues to move ENE through the area Saturday night,
the cold front will push any remaining precipitation east of the
area. While some drying will occur on Sunday, one more shortwave
dropping down from the Canadian border could produce enough lift for
a few additional showers on Sunday. However, will note that
soundings are rather moisture-starved, so showers should be light.

Moving into early next week, expect ridging and and warming as high
pressure moves from the Plains through the Midwest. Then, a series
of quickly-moving shortwaves and associated cold frontal passage
will bring in additional chances for showers and storms Tuesday
through the middle of next week, but timing differences persist
among various model guidance this far out.

With clouds and rain through the first half of the weekend,
temperatures will be a little below normal before climbing back
above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF period with light
easterly winds. Ceilings will begin to lower at IWD very late in the
period possibly approaching IFR just beyond 18Z tomorrow. Light rain
chances will also increase at IWD towards the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Winds will be turning mainly over to the N to NE today, with a
stretch of light winds expected today into early Saturday with
surface ridging over Lake Superior. A surface low lifting through
the Upper Lakes on Saturday will lead to northeasterly winds up to
20-25 knots over the western Lake during the day. Northwesterly
winds behind the departing low should stay around or just below 20
knots on Sunday. Southwesterly winds will return early next week
increasing to 20-25 knots ahead of another weak cold front by
Tuesday afternoon.

Moderate to heavy rain will be possible across the south half of the
Lake from later Friday through Saturday which could lead to some
dense fog development during that time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...LC