![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
069 FXUS64 KOUN 292011 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 311 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 As of 9AM this morning, the surface analysis showed a weak surface low over the TX panhandle with a stationary front extending across northwest Oklahoma and a reinforcing cold front from north-central to southwest Kansas. The stationary front has moved very slowly into northern Oklahoma this afternoon. The 2PM analysis now places the stationary front from near Arnett to Medford, and this boundary will be the focal zone for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts (60 to 70 mph) with storm downbursts along with some hail (though a lesser concern) possible. Abundant moisture content present and well-above average PWAT values will allow for efficient and heavy rainfall. Depending on how long storms linger over a particular area, locally-heavy rainfall could pose a flash- flood risk. Storm chances continue overnight, especially across northern Oklahoma, to account for remnant activity exiting the high plains (though this is looking less likely as the afternoon wears on). Momentum from the reinforcing cold front, along cold pools resulting from thunderstorms, should push the stationary boundary towards central oklahoma very gradually this evening into tonight. This boundary lingers near, or within reach of the I-40 corridor tomorrow and thunderstorm redevelopment is possible along this boundary on Sunday afternoon and evening. Storm activity should be diurnally- driven, and thus, dissipate by tomorrow evening. Strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any storms that develop on Sunday. Many areas along/north of I-40 will see a brief reprieve from the heat tomorrow. High temperatures for far northern Oklahoma could only rise into the low/mid-80`s with upper 80`s and low 90`s across central Oklahoma. With low to medium confidence (30-50%) of heat index values reaching 105 deg F in southern counties, an advisory was not issued. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The ridge remains centered over the southern plains into next week with well-above average temperatures (both max/min) through at least Thursday. A northern stream trough reaches the Pacific northwest on Sunday and advances steadily across southern Canada and the northern CONUS. The associated cold front potentially moves into Oklahoma mid-week, but may only bring somewhat lower temperatures to northwest Oklahoma on Wednesday. Rain/storm chances return for a portion of NW/N Oklahoma late Tuesday with with low POPs continuing over northern OK on Wednesday to account for the stalled front scenario. Unfortunately, the heat will return on Monday and persist through Thursday with heat advisory criteria likely being met daily for some areas. The upper ridge is prog`d to shift over the southeastern CONUS end of next week with potentially several northern stream shortwaves pushing a cold front into the area Thursday night or Friday, along with a return of rain chances. High temperatures on Friday and potentially next Saturday appear to be about 10 degrees less than Thursday - even for our southern counties. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Will keep things VFR for now, although low chance to see some MVFR ceilings late tonight across the north. Otherwise, a weak cold front across far northwest Oklahoma will gradually shift south and east this afternoon and tonight. This boundary will be the focus for some late afternoon and evening storms that may impact TAF sites across northern into central sections of Oklahoma. South to southeast winds will continue to the south of the front, while to the north of the boundary the winds will shift to the east/northeast. Have also included the potential for a period of storms late tonight into Sunday morning across north central Oklahoma as there appears the chance for storms across Kansas to move southward into the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 91 75 98 / 30 30 10 10 Hobart OK 78 97 78 101 / 20 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 81 99 79 102 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 69 86 73 100 / 50 30 10 0 Ponca City OK 70 82 71 97 / 70 40 10 10 Durant OK 80 97 76 97 / 10 20 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>006-009>011- 014>017-021-022-033>037. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ007- 008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086- 089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30