688
FXUS62 KRAH 281856
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the New England coast tonight. A hotter
and more humid airmass will become established across the area this
weekend. A cold front will approach the area Sunday bringing the
next chance of storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 243 PM Friday...

High pressure to the north centered just of the New England coast is
resulting in good onshore flow from the west this afternoon. A weak
frontal boundary remains to the south and expected to wobble north
this afternoon and overnight. As such a few isolated showers and
storms developing along the coast could impact the Sandhills region
later this afternoon. Later overnight as the warm front lifts to the
north there is a chance that storms could develop across the region,
with the best chance over the western Piedmont. Low stratus could
develop early morning across the region with pockets of fog
producing lower visibilities in some areas. Easterly flow this
afternoon will shift overnight to a more south-southwesterly flow by
Saturday morning. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the
upper 80s NW to low/mid 90s elsewhere. Lows overnight will generally
be in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

Hot and mainly dry high pressure will be in firm control again
Saturday. This will mean high heat and humidity again. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for much of the region as heat
indices are forecast into the 100`s east of the Triad. Actual highs
will reach 92-98. There is only a slight chance of a late day storm
along the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain and in the far western
Piedmont. Lows will struggle to fall under 80 many areas Saturday
night with little to no showers expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Friday...

Hot and stormy Sun/Sun night, then generally quiet and mostly dry
through the work week. Near normal temps Mon-Tue will once again
give way to intensifying heat for July 4th and into the weekend.

Sun-Sun night: Expect hot and muggy conditions with high rain
chances as a potent mid level trough deepens with a positively tilt
as it shifts through far SE Canada/St Lawrence Valley into the
Northeast states. Just ahead of this trough axis and its associated
surface front, anomalously high PWs near 2.5" will spread in
areawide, with mid level moistening and cooling resulting in an
erosion of mid level stability, as steepening lapse rates through
the column and prefrontal afternoon heating push SBCAPE to 1000-2500
J/kg, according to the latest LREF. Mid level flow and deep layer
bulk shear will remain somewhat muted much of the day, however,
peaking at just 15-25 kts, highest near the border Sun evening/night
as the stronger cyclonic flow aloft dips into our latitude with
trough axis passage. This will also result in the better upper
divergence holding off until after dark, and this lack of temporal
juxtapositioning of buoyancy and dynamic forcing for ascent could
limit our severe threat. But given the forecast SBCAPE and deep
mixing with elevated DCAPE, the threat of a few strong wet
microbursts seems realistic. Will continue with high pops, peaking
at likely at some point over the entire CWA. Sun is likely to be
another day of dangerous heat, with very warm morning temps and
highs mostly in the mid 90s, giving heat indices again around 100-
105 over most of the area. The surface front should drop slowly SE
through the area (more likely, jumping into a prefrontal trough or
convective outflow) Sun night, with some lower dewpoints expected to
start arriving into the north sections overnight. Lows in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

Mon-Fri: The front and deep moisture may still be lingering across
southern sections Mon morning, so will maintain good chance to low
likely pops there early. But as the front settles to our S and drier
air works in from the N amid briefly gusty NE winds Mon, and within
ridging both at the surface and aloft, expect a trend to no pops
late Mon, lasting through mid week as high pressure noses in from
the N. Expect temps to be near to even slightly below normal
Mon/Tue, with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s, making it feel quite
pleasant. Then, as the mid level trough extending down through the
Mid Atlantic early Mon shifts offshore and ridging builds further
from the S Plains/Lower Miss Valley into the Carolinas, with the
surface ridge pushing out over the open NW Atlantic, rising humidity
and thicknesses will bring a return to oppressive heat. Highs should
be in the low to mid 90s Wed and mid 90s to near 100 on July 4th and
Fri, as thicknesses climb to nearly 20 m above normal. With mid
level warm/stable air beneath the strong ridge aloft and limited
deep moisture flux into the area, rain chances will remain low Wed,
then will have a trend toward climo pops for Thu/Fri, just 25-35%
chance at most with those higher values focused on the extreme NW
where mountain convection could drift late each day. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

VFR conditions currently across the region with some mid and high
clouds moving over the region. Later this afternoon some isolated
showers or storms could develop around KFAY reducing visbys/ceilings
at times with stronger storms. Up slope flow in the NW Piedmont
could also generate some storms but not until later this evening.
There is a good chance of low stratus and/or fog at all sites early
morning. MVFR or even IFR conditions are possible by 06z at KINT,
KGSO, and KRWI. As the low stratus develops and spreads south, KRDU
and KFAY could see MVFR or IFR conditions by 08/09z. By 15/16z
Saturday morning all sites are expected to return to MVFR.

Outlook: Sub VFR conditions will be possible area wide Sun morning
with IFR stratus, followed by a good chance of mainly afternoon-
evening showers/storms Sunday. VFR conditions are expected early to
mid week next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 30:
KFAY: 102/2012

July 4:
KGSO: 98/1970
KRDU: 101/2012
KFAY: 98/2019


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 28:
KRDU: 76/1952
KFAY: 78/1914

June 29:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 78/1914
KFAY: 76/1969

June 30:
KGSO: 74/1936
KRDU: 80/1936
KFAY: 79/1936

July 1:
KRDU: 75/2012
KFAY: 76/1990

July 4:
KGSO: 73/2018
KRDU: 79/1902
KFAY: 78/1913



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH