484
FXUS61 KRLX 280530
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
130 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear/cool this late morning under high pressure. Warm
and increasingly humid today with isolated afternoon storm
potential. A cold front crosses mid weekend, with more storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

High pressure fleets toward the east away from the area
allowing southerly flow to ramp up bringing in higher dewpoints
and much more moisture. By the afternoon, a system headed for
the Great Lakes will drag a warm frontal boundary from south
to north across the CWA. This feature will promote thunderstorm
activity, however the severe threat does not exist and the
activity should be confined to just isolated in nature more
than anything else.

Not to say there cannot be a strong to severe storm due to
modest wind shear, heck of a lot of DCAPE with plenty
instability and moisture as we get up in the low 90`s and low
70`s in temperatures and dewpoints, respectively. If the Cu
field during the afternoon gets agitated, and if any moderate
Cu could then get past the low to midlevel CAPs, then
thunderstorms may become strong instead of the pulse weak type.

There is also a lot of very dry air in the mid to upper levels
as seen by the intense hydrolapses on the forecast soundings
which will be a thunderstorm deterrent. Regardless, we
shouldn`t see too much activity until the cold front comes
later on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

There are still some indications that a weak 500mb shortwave
could move across the area Friday night, which may help trigger
some isolated to scattered showers or storms overnight in the
increasingly moist airmass. Add in an approaching front and
diurnal destabilization during the day on Saturday, and we can
expect scattered to widespread showers and storms Saturday in
the warm sector ahead of the front. As the front approaches, a
decent amount of shower and storm activity is likely to persist
Saturday night, and won`t truly start to clear the area until
the front finally crosses late Saturday night into Sunday. SPC
did put us into a Marginal severe risk for most of the area for
Saturday and Saturday night, with Slight risk over some of our
northwestern counties, but a lot of that may be conditional on
some breaks in cloud cover to allow for areas of enhanced
destabilization. If we can get sufficient CAPE for strong
storms, areas further north look more likely to have sufficient
shear to allow for more organized storms and better severe
potential. Regardless of severe potential, deterministic data
and ensemble means are still showing likely PWATs above 2.0
inches, so heavy rain can be expected and WPC maintained the
marginal excessive rainfall risk for the area.

It will remain hot and humid Saturday ahead of the front,
though cloud cover and precip may limit temps a bit cooler than
Friday`s highs. Dew points will remain well into the 60s and
lower 70s in the warm sector, making for some very muggy and
uncomfortable nights. Heat index values on Saturday will we in
the mid to upper 90s across a broad swath of the lower
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Any lingering showers should quickly dissipate or depart to the
east Sunday evening and night, with drier air working into the
area. The drier air and gentle N`ly flow behind the front may be
enough to hold off fog across most of the area, despite the
expected precip Saturday into Sunday, but patchy fog was put
into some of the more protected valley locations where
decoupling may be achieved. Regardless, Sunday night through
Monday night look to be 36 hours of amazing weather considering
we`ll be starting the month of July. We can expect dew points
down into the 50s (40s on the higher ridges), with overnight
lows in the 50s, and Monday`s highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s
(60s in the mountains).

However, the surface high slides off to the east by Tuesday,
bring S`ly winds back into play, and with the upper-level ridge
moving overhead, we`ll quickly return to some summertime heat
and humidity. The area looks to remain dry on Tuesday under the
crest of the upper-level ridge, but as that ridge starts to get
suppressed southward by mid-week, shower and storm chances look
to return to the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

Some valley fog across the mountain valleys may bring EKN down
to IFR for mid morning, but the other sites may be left out at
this time. During the rest of the period, VFR will remain the
dominant flight category. During the afternoon a Cu field,
above MVFR, should develop and there may be some isolated shower
and storm potential, but this will be very isolated in nature,
therefore left mention out of TAFs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 06/28/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ