662
FXUS61 KRNK 261033
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
633 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the region today will bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and
evening. Hot and humid weather is expected through the end of
the week. A chance of thunderstorms remain in the forecast for
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening.

2) Hot with increasing humidity today.

A subtle upper wave currently located over the Upper Ohio Valley
this morning will move east today and the upper flow will
amplify a bit with the wave passing through during peak heating.
Confidence has increased for widely scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms later today associated with a frontal passage.

Quiet weather this morning locally with the bulk of the activity
over the middle Mississippi Valley region. This is all
associated with a front and the aforementioned upper wave
dropping southeast out of the upper Midwest. Should start the
day mostly sunny with areas of cirrus from the upstream
convection. For now, thinking the cloud cover mainly remains to
the west which should allow for strong surface heating today.
Expecting temperatures to quickly warm into mid/upper 80s for
the mountains and mid/upper 90s over the Piedmont. Southerly
flow ahead of the front will bring modest moisture back into the
region with dew points rising out of the 50s this morning and
into the mid/upper 60s by this afternoon.

Strong surface heating and modest moisture return should result
in destabilization by early afternoon with scattered
thunderstorms developing along the higher terrain. Lack of
speed shear would indicate a lesser threat for organized
convection, with storm mode being multicellular merging cells
forming along outflows. Brief instances of strong damaging winds
are the main threat owing to modeled DCAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg across much of the area. Although antecedent conditions
are very dry, slow storms motions and perhaps backbuilding along
outflows, coupled with higher Precipitable Water values could
result in efficient rainfall producers, leading to areas of
localized flooding.

Thunderstorm activity diminishes after sunset, but still some
isolated thunder could continue into the overnight hours, along
with some showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day.

2) Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal.

A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, while high
pressure builds to the north and provides drier air after the
frontal passage. More showers and thunderstorms could develop across
North Carolina and Virginia before the front exits eastward. The
flow should turn towards the east by Friday as high pressure heads
offshore. The resulting moisture convergence against the Blue Ridge
could spark more showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon.

Another cold front should approach the Ohio River Valley by
Saturday. While temperatures will remain near or slightly above
normal throughout this forecast period, Saturday appears to be the
warmest day due to extra warm air advection from southwest flow. The
increasing heat and moisture could spark more widespread convection
for Saturday afternoon and evening. The models have trended upward
with the intensity of storms on Saturday compared to previous runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for more showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday, but chances diminish afterward.

2) Temperatures drop a little for Monday and Tuesday but still
stay close to seasonable values.

By Sunday, a cold front should reach the Appalachian Mountains to
trigger more showers and thunderstorms. Timing of the frontal
passage could play an important role in how strong any storms become
during Sunday afternoon and evening. The front will exit the East
Coast by Monday, and high pressure should push drier air into the
Mid Atlantic. The models depict this area of high pressure being
further to the south compared to previous renditions, so the chances
of showers and thunderstorms have been reduced for Monday and
Tuesday. Only the southern Blue Ridge maintains a low chance of
afternoon convection for both days. Temperatures also drop a few
degrees with highs possibly not reaching the 90s for the first time
in a while across the Piedmont to start the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

Widespread VFR this morning and VFR expected to continue into
early afternoon.

Increasing cloud cover this afternoon and thunderstorms are
expected to impact the region through the late afternoon and
into the early overnight hours. Have added VCTS at BLF/LWB
terminals starting around 18z-19z/2pm-3pm and then spreading
east with time. Main threat from storms today will be strong
damaging winds. Storms will also be capable of very heavy
downpours.

Storm coverage tapers off tonight, but showers may remain within
the region through midnight. Some MFVR cigs also possible for
the mountains tonight.

Fog seems probable in the favored valleys tonight and into early
tomorrow morning. Areas that receive rainfall today will have a
better chance at seeing fog formation.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible again each
afternoon and evening Thursday through Saturday.

A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG