371
FXUS61 KRNK 271837
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will slowly track south through the Mid Atlantic
and Carolina states through Friday and result in showers and
perhaps thunderstorms through Friday. Another front with
thunderstorms comes across the region Saturday and Sunday. The
humidity will remain high through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...

Most showers have fallen apart or drifted south of our NC
counties along with the slowly falling front. Some weak
moisture convergence helped along by orographic heating is
allowing highly local showers to form right along some upper
ridges in far southwestern VA and the High Country of NC. As the
moisture is used up and we lose peak daytime heating, expect
these to fall apart.

Look ahead to tomorrow, a surface high moves further east to
just off the New England coast. This will enhance return flow
from the Gulf Stream, and enable upslope from the east side of
the mountains. Have included chance PoPs for most of the CWA,
especially the southern Blue Ridge and mountains of far
southwestern VA. Temperatures Friday will be slightly above
normal, still in the 80s for most, but should hopefully avoid
the 90s as we lack a stout sub tropical ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Hot and humid Saturday and Sunday, with heat indices near 100
possible.
2. Showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Ridging aloft builds over the southeastern US through  the weekend,
while an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes and heads eastward,
bringing an associated surface frontal system through the northeast.
Surface high pressure centered over the northeast will move offshore
through Saturday, and south/southwesterly flow around the high will
advect plenty of moisture into the area from the Gulf. Prefrontal
showers and thunderstorms are possible early Saturday with the warm
front lifting through the region. As instability increases through
the day, storms may become more widespread, though convection
earlier in the day may impact the coverage of the afternoon storms,
and storm activity should wane overnight.

The cold front itself reaches the area sometime Sunday, bringing
another round of showers and thunderstorms, though there is still a
degree of uncertainty in the specific timing details, though it
looks to be Sunday afternoon and evening at this time. Better
forcing and deep layer shear Sunday suggest more organized
convection and potential for severe storms. Ensemble forecast
soundings have inverted V profiles, and forecast DCAPE near 1000
J/kg, suggest damaging winds as the primary threat. There is a
marginal risk for flooding due to excessive rainfall with the
plentiful atmospheric moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Drier and cooler weather for Monday and Tuesday.
2. Temperatures start increasing trend by Wednesday.
3. Hot temperatures possible for Independence Day.

Behind the frontal passage on Sunday, high pressure builds into the
region to begin the work week, and a cooler and drier airmass
settles into the area, keeping the weather drier and quiet for
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be cooler relative to the
weekend, but still near seasonal normals. The surface high slides
eastward across the northeast through Wednesday, and southwesterly
return flow will start temperatures on a warming trend for midweek
as ridging aloft builds over the southeastern states. The next cold
front heads into the Midwest by midweek, and looks to reach the Mid
Atlantic by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Southwesterly flow will bring moisture and warmer air up into the
area from the Gulf, and high temperatures look to reach back into
the upper 80s and low 90s by Independence Day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...

Showers have mostly ended. A few localized showers will persist
near the highest elevations of the southern Blue Ridge near the
NC border. These too should dissipate this evening.

On Friday showers will return for most of the area due to a
front meandering near the VA/NC border. Confidence in their
location is low, so they have not been included in TAFs Friday
afternoon. This doesn`t mean there won`t be showers in between
TAF or observation sites.

Winds will veer slowly over the next 24 hours from northeasterly
to southeasterly. Speeds will be light and generally 5-8kts.

Vsbys and cigs will be safely VFR through the period, with the
exception of a couple hours of patchy valley fog west of the
Blue Ridge. Coverage will be sparse, so this too has been
excepted from mention in the TAFs.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...


A greater coverage of thunderstorms and associated MVFR flight
conditions, is expected along and ahead of a cold front on
Saturday and Sunday.

Monday is expected to be drier and VFR, with a majority of the
showers and thunderstorms south of the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/VFJ
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ